Study

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9717872508

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000130036#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

4 keys match

https://gladiator.tf/listings/600014065d181f923246013e - buy order 25 keys 14.77 ref

Taking 25 keys

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Sold for 30 keys 13 ref

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128631012#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

Bought off MP

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9461779007

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6003720daee7f753976dee9a - buyout 30 keys 29 ref

Taking 31 keys here

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9362758408

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1610323200/1610409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1610323200/1610409600

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ffd5110d0087383d9004b28 - buyout 31 keys

Taking 31 keys here

Sale 6

Sold on MP

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9332145752

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198249301650#!/compare/1608940800/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199109444586#!/compare/1608681600/1608940800

Untrace

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199109444586#!/compare/1608940800/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199063051442#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Untrace

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/8789162099

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102451836#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

Bought off STN and dumped

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102451836#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841365001#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

Bulk

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841365001#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082465971#!/compare/1607126400/1607731200

Untrace

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082465971#!/compare/1610582400/1610928000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035582739#!/compare/1610496000/1610668800

Untrace / gambling

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035582739#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

24.33 ref matches

Sale 14

Bought off qs.store, probably by Erik again

It's probably another sale at 31 keys ish, but a bit tough proving both

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7882485998

Sale 15

Delisted off MP

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7435704455

Sale 16

Bought off MP or delisted

Sale 17

Excluding trades to and from tradeit

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1611792000/1611878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376090319#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

Sold for 29 keys

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/6220916319

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006819601#!/compare/1606953600/1611360000

Untrace

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/458038217

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199068541785#!/compare/1607644800/1610668800

https://prnt.sc/xtpaq4

This stuff matches

Disco Beat Down Tyrantium Helmet

Disco Beat Down Carouser's Capotain

Showstopper Taunt: The Trackman's Touchdown

Probably will end up high considering how qs.store values unusuals at qbuy prices

Excluding

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/274404288

Sale 21

Bot shuffle

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/139;5;u19

Jan 14th - $79.99 / $2.12 = 37.73 keys

Jan 15th - $79.99 / $2.11 = 37.91 keys

Sales

25, 30, 31, 31, 38, 38

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/xtpfgr

Sellers:

5 days at 31 keys

Long time at 31.54 keys

26 days at 32 ke4ys

5 months at 42 keys

Buyers at:

27.43 keys

Taking 30 - 31 keys here

New sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/139;5;u19

Feb 1st

2 sales

$79.99

$79.99

$79.99 / $2.1 = 38.09 keys

Now I am given 5 sales at 38 keys so I would almost have to include it into the range haha

But, those are all markteplace sales and the lower sellers on classifieds counter a range.

Yes there's more than enough evidence to suggest 38 should be included but I don't think so on the basis of the unsold at 32

Thanks Blaze:

there's probably enough sales at 38 to call it a common trading point here. 30 - 31 alone is looking a bit low now due to buyers at 32 atm. i think 31 - 38 should be fine here as a conservative drop

I’m reluctant

But taking 31 – 38 keys here