Mini for Scorching Flames Modest Pile of Hat

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9811428950

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275735463#!/compare/1614211200/1614384000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1614297600/1614384000

Untrace

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9695837309

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061353482#!/compare/1612483200/1614211200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402039752#!/compare/1614124800/1614211200

Untrace

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402039752#!/compare/1614211200/1614297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872138690#!/compare/1614211200/1614297600

Sold for 98 keys

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872138690#!/compare/1614556800/1614729600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169255064#!/compare/1614643200/1614729600

Sold for 110 keys

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/6816123494

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195823355#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077243653#!/compare/1608163200/1609286400

Sold for 120 keys

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/4871597914

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198931316406#!/compare/1608076800/1608336000

Untrace

Sale 7

Excluding tradeit

Sale 8

MP

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/4834322678

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074578593#!/compare/1610928000/1611964800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088707185#!/compare/1610841600/1610928000

Sold for 94 keys 37 ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/600556190fbc762f11086f6a - buy order was exactly that

Taking 95 keys

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088707185#!/compare/1611964800/1612137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045343680#!/compare/1611878400/1612051200

Sold for Scorching Flames Modest Pile of Hat

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045343680#!/compare/1612051200/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991710013#!/compare/1611014400/1612310400

Sold for Strange Green Energy Law

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/60219398fb8db260f24848c1 - 116 keys

Taking as 116 keys

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991710013#!/compare/1611014400/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

Sold for:

54 keys

22.77 ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601a3ef1d5eddb95e958c5c3 - buy order was 104 keys 22.77 ref

Taking as 104 keys

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/4405100949

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096404008#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009471724#!/compare/1611360000/1611532800

Sold for 100 keys

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009471724#!/compare/1614384000/1614643200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1614556800/1614643200

Untrace

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1614729600/1614816000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009471724#!/compare/1614729600/1614816000

62 keys match here

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30743;5;u9

Mar 10th - $239.99 / $2.19 = 109.58 keys

Sales

98

110

120

95

SF Modest - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6053bf373daf9557fd5c5c7a - 122 keys

116

104

100

62

110

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/10pcn6v

Bot at 118.5 keys

19 days at 160 keys

Buyers at 86.2 keys

Conclusions

As highlighted over at the SF Modest suggestion, I think 95 - 120 keys is the right call here. The SF Modest ended up at 122 keys so rounding down to 120 keys here should be fine.

Going with 95 - 120 keys here