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1/1, Only Sale:
https://mannco.store/item/32255
https://backpack.tf/item/9875331318
Key price: https://mannco.store/item/1
$40/$1.91 = 20.94, rounding to 21
Going off of Shuffle Spy's comment on (https://backpack.tf/suggestion/60413de454cfdd536d15c1dd), I calculated the weekly average (wasn't sure how to properly do it so I took it from 3 days before and after the sale, along with the sale date) and got an average weekly price of $1.92 making the hat worth 20.83 keys. Still rounds up to 21 keys so not going to resuggest.
As long as it's not a huge difference it's fine.
A quick way to get the key price to use is the keyprice checker from Manic:
https://manic.tf/keyprice/
You can select a platform and a date, and it will then give you the daily and weekly averages.