Mirthful Mistletoe Smissmas Sorcerer

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https://backpack.tf/item/9538784532

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093317056#!/compare/1616630400/1616889600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1616716800/1616803200

Keys retraded too quickly, I suspect the keys that went to stn.tf unusual bot though, in which case 23 match?

Currently listed for 40 keys, first snapshot at this price was 9 days ago: https://gladiator.tf/listings/606ec16f414ab6e07038c4a2

Previously listed at 42.

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https://backpack.tf/item/9571667986

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076545687#!/compare/1612310400/1616457600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1613174400/1613260800

???

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1614988800/1615075200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006971039#!/compare/1614988800/1615075200

Bulk for pure

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006971039#!/compare/1615075200/1615161600

Buyer: too quick

Bulk for pure

Seller: too quick

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140305247#!/compare/1608681600/1616198400

Marketplace.tf sale $49.99: https://i.imgur.com/MBbGoq5.png (thank you Erik)

Keys at $2.19: https://i.imgur.com/NvoGyUD.png

marketplace.tf link: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31166;5;u175

= 23 keys

Not currently listed.

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https://backpack.tf/item/9645772994

Currently listed for 60 keys, unsold for 2 months.

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https://backpack.tf/item/9655644498

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056763404#!/compare/1612051200/1613174400

Buyer: too quick

???

Seller: too quick

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081042493#!/compare/1613433600/1613520000

SCM $57.91 https://i.imgur.com/ClalRS4.png

Keys at $2.34 https://i.imgur.com/QNtxq9C.png

Possibly buy order.

= 25 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081042493#!/compare/1614384000/1614470400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267375649#!/compare/1614297600/1614470400

Bulk for Burning Flames Head Warmer

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267375649#!/compare/1616544000/1616630400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198964722163#!/compare/1616457600/1616544000

Buyer screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/inJkbIY.png (thank you 大肥猫)

Sold for Green Energy Aviator Assasin (in-date at 34) + 8 keys

Buyout was 60 keys: https://gladiator.tf/listings/605bc4747ba6605468b9d2d7

= 42 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198964722163#!/compare/1617408000/1617494400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066088040#!/compare/1617408000/1617494400

Buyer screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/rZiSsoZ.png

Sold to me with 8 keys for a pro ks medi gun kit (flames + villainous violet)

My buyout on the kit was 45 keys but I treated that as 'optimistic'.

Buyout on the hat was 48 keys: https://gladiator.tf/listings/605e92b7ad233b85a784e08a

Probably not useful...

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066088040#!/compare/1618185600/1618272000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021228339#!/compare/1618185600/1618272000

Seller screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/GwH0i6V.png

Sold by me for 27 keys

This was a quicksell; I went on a trade server and the first guy I traded (IIRC) agreed to this.

= 27 keys

Removed from inventory: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021228339#!/compare/1618531200/1618617600

Listed on SCM for $86.25: https://i.imgur.com/INQO9KJ.png

Keys at $2.34 so this is 37 keys

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https://backpack.tf/item/9658412730

Currently listed on mannco.store

https://mannco.store/item/30329

https://i.imgur.com/z16KQdn.png

for $140.00 with keys at $1.93 = 77 keys LOL

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https://backpack.tf/item/9669848656

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341781664#!/compare/1613520000/1613606400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198268517969#!/compare/1613433600/1613606400

???

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198268517969#!/compare/1614211200/1615593600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086948995#!/compare/1614038400/1614211200

Seller screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/Vua0Plp.png (thank you 2OG)

With 8 keys for Specialized Killstreak Australium Minigun

Minigun had buyers 22, sellers 23 at the time: https://gladiator.tf/listings/603569989f6ba29335dbdd55

= 30 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086948995#!/compare/1614729600/1614816000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059042690#!/compare/1614816000/1614902400

???

Currently listed for 42 keys, unsold for 12 days at this price, previously listed at 60 keys.

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https://backpack.tf/item/9745760327

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198369783171#!/compare/1614211200/1614556800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1614297600/1614384000

Sold to quicksell.store

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1614902400/1614988800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126541023#!/compare/1602288000/1615161600

Bought from quicksell.store

Sold again to quicksell.store.

Currently for sale (by quicksell.store) for 35 keys, earliest snapshot at this price was 9 days ago: https://gladiator.tf/listings/606f26fee73bdbfbbf7dd1a2

Previously listed at 42 keys.

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Sales:

23 marketplace.tf

25 SCM

27

30

42

Sellers:

35 for 9 days bot

37 SCM

40 for 9 days bot

42 for 12 days

60 for 2 months

Generic buy orders at 21. Given the abundance of sellers for less, 42 seems high. I am excluding the sales at 23 and 25 because they were cash trades, I had little trouble quickselling it for 27, and the 25 SCM sale was likely to buy orders at the time. Going with 27-30.