Mini for Pyroland Nightmare Nuke

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9176976793

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069124905#!/compare/1608508800/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800

Sold for 20 keys 15.44 ref

Taking 20 keys

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168820816#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

Sold for 26 keys 0.22 ref

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168820816#!/compare/1609545600/1609632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115509750#!/compare/1609545600/1609632000

Sold for 29 keys

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115509750#!/compare/1610323200/1610409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155247617#!/compare/1609372800/1610323200

Sold alongside:

Aces High Big Chief

for

Gravelly Ghoul A Hat to Kill For

1 key

High

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155247617#!/compare/1610323200/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091488783#!/compare/1610236800/1610409600

Added 2 keys 24 ref for

Miami Nights A Hat to Kill For - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fecc4ea01508742986b00e3 - 30 keys

30 - 2.5 = 27.5 keys

Rounding up to 28 keys here

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091488783#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152219414#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Sold for 29 keys

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152219414#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056571743#!/compare/1610841600/1611014400

Sold for 34 keys

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056571743#!/compare/1612656000/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255850609#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Sold for:

Pyroland Nightmare Nuke

6 keys

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255850609#!/compare/1612828800/1612915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097823273#!/compare/1612483200/1612915200

Sold for 32 keys

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097823273#!/compare/1612915200/1613174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074858867#!/compare/1612828800/1612915200

Sunbeams Tank Top matches?

Excluding, probably x amount of keys also added

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074858867#!/compare/1613347200/1613433600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198943242227#!/compare/1613347200/1613433600

Feels like 34 keys

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/8500789905

Sale 12

Moved to bot

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/6801859075

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117149690#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121737111#!/compare/1566000000/1614902400

Untrace

Sales

20, 26, 29, 28, 29, 34, 32, 34

Sales but ordered

20, 26, 28, 29, 29, 32, 34, 34

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/10fhn5l

Fresh at 40 keys

A bit longer at 45 keys

Trend over the past 2 weeks

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6036d4050f5074fd1fb74039

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603829497c55a4d32dc7e1c9

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603972db3beabe8b303470af

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603a9628d4a6a64c8434376c

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603bea46129d37407536c7ba

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603d6abb1f301cd3bb502114

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603ec6765ce4b1e0a4835137

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604002ef32030ba485b80ed8

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60416e71a5366ff80c53cf07

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6042a58c6f824aa06b276a26

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604409da5f89e27f7e503fa7

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6045171343b966037eae91dd

Buyers have been over 30 keys for a while now

Taking 29 - 34 keys here, 2 pure sales at 29 warrants it being in the range

Thanks Shufflo:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198943242227#!/compare/1618358400/1618790400 - Sold for 36 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163549413#!/compare/1618704000/1618790400 - Sold for 37 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198932964786#!/compare/1618531200/1618790400 - Sold for 38 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120845968#!/compare/1618790400/1618876800 - Sold for a P. Fetti Black Watch + Bubbling Tipped Lid

https://gladiator.tf/listings/607e10fd6b2f8312f11c79c0 - Buyout of 43 Keys for the last sale, if it matters.

The current range will be too low given the buyers. The last sale will need to be looked into to determine if it's higher than 38 or not.

aj time:

Bubbling Tipped - https://pastebin.com/LbUihbHh - no minis, buyers at the time were 17 ish keys

PFetti Black Watch - https://pastebin.com/0uS5XJuT - 2 pure sales at 16 and 17 keys, a couple more item sales that do not go over 20 keys for sure

So yes it'll be less than 38 keys

Ranging this as 34 - 38 keys then? Or perhaps range it 36 - 38 keys?

From this question, Shuffle responded that considering buyers are now substantially above 34 keys to just flat out exclude it.

https://prnt.sc/11te08p

And whilst that makes sense, I'm rather torn excluding every single other sale I've collected, considering there are 2 pure sales at 34 keys.

I don't like the precedent that aggressive bot cutting is setting on lower tier suggestions sub 100 keys arguably. I have a couple examples from when buy orders died and lower sales were subsequently re-included into the range. This is why I started looking at the trend of buy orders over time, typically a period of 2 weeks but that can always be extended to see an even more general trend.

Regardless, I'll oblige for now and resuggest at 36 - 38 keys, mods feel free to parlé amongst yourselves and I'd ask for a little bit of closure and some words before this suggestion is accepted.