Mini for Green Confetti Texas Toast

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9790703367

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263836417#!/compare/1614038400/1614124800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198387518314#!/compare/1614124800/1614297600

Divine Desire Reindoonibeanie matches

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9673696677

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196427757#!/compare/1612051200/1614816000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267375649#!/compare/1611705600/1612051200

Veteran's Attire matches

Untrace

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267375649#!/compare/1614124800/1614211200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1614124800/1614211200

Added:

Green Confetti Texas Toast

for

Burning Flames Head Warmer

Strange Professional Killstreak Shooting Star - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6036d5e792f87cb253a12531 - 17.5 keys

Trying to use on Texas

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1614643200/1615075200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028970071#!/compare/1614988800/1615075200

Bulk for Phosphorous Master's Yellow Belt

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028970071#!/compare/1615075200/1615161600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977589924#!/compare/1614988800/1615161600

Added:

3 keys

for

Burning Flames Metal Slug - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6057924aa378fe0c674e6f33 - 48 keys

48 - 3 = 45 keys

Taking as 45 keys

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9657845211

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970657444#!/compare/1613174400/1613260800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263836417#!/compare/1613088000/1613347200

Untrace

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9634613222

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382789130#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1609286400/1609372800

2 keys match

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069003221#!/compare/1609891200/1610064000

Sold for:

50 keys

Veno Shock Taunt: Pool Party - https://pastebin.com/rXFQEUJ3 - 10 keys

50 + 10 = 60 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff41cc920b24366a7dd8fac - buyout 99 keys

Taking 60 keys here

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/9628138275

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165597659#!/compare/1614038400/1614297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198835042333#!/compare/1613606400/1614124800

Untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/9623369662

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043209660#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1610496000/1610668800

Bulk for Distant Dream Patriot Peak

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074120641#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

Bulk for Demonflame Gentleman's Gatsby

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074120641#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

Sold for 43 keys

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115740663#!/compare/1610668800/1610841600

Sold for:

Reindoonicorn Rancher Taunt: Conga - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6003673853043a19ef1d3965 - 14 key buyers

Magical Spirit Taunt: Yeti Punch - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fe9052c4baf5a21fa5df237 - 20 keys

Winter Spirit Taunt: The Balloonibouncer - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fbc81887e52e97ee0012875 - 22 indate at the time

Haunted Chicken Kiev - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6003705231e75c7a82fa351c - 19 keys

Strange Professional Killstreak C.A.P.P.E.R - https://gladiator.tf/listings/600371f39966470bed5b3b0f - 19 keys

14 + 20 + 22 + 19 + 19 = 94 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6003798a9930224592e5d640 - 90 key buyout

Capping at 90 keys here

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/9616183396

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130699685#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038978118#!/compare/1613865600/1614038400

SCM

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038978118#!/compare/1615507200/1615680000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160296385#!/compare/1554163200/1615766400

Sold for 45 keys

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/9604992200

Sale 16

Excluding trades with scammers

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/9580141682

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055991746#!/compare/1610409600/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067967717#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Sold for:

Serenus Lumen Brain-Warming Wear

Twisted Radiance Dancing Doe

Buyers already total above 53 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fffc74ecf7e0faf47f667e2 - 90 key buyout

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067967717#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098096360#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

Sold for:

Strange Orbiting Planets Herald's Helm - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d5484bc3df0d67d8f6bc - buyers for non strange 10 keys at the time

Blizzardy Storm Merc's Mohawk - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d3ef2c09a4393268ede3 - buyers 29 keys at the time

Kill-a-Watt Shooter's Sola Topihttps://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d4c903c8fb16f65a4afc - buyers 5.7 keys at the time

10 + 29 + 5.7 = 44.7 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/600175dc418aa40b021e3984 - 90 key buyout

Sale will fit in range perhaps

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098096360#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999722132#!/compare/1610755200/1611014400

Added:

Purple Confetti Fancy Fedora

Circling Heart Cyborg Stunt Helmet

for

Scorching Flames Flipped Trilby

Bulky-ish

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999722132#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146954288#!/compare/1575158400/1611705600

Untrace

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/9576017935

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096559520#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030343929#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

Bulk

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030343929#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041108750#!/compare/1609891200/1610064000

Sold for:

Scorching Flames Melted Mop - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fefe26b9205da6446669d2a - 35.5 keys

Pyroland Daydream Mighty Mitre - https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff78744ce2f65b0f0525ba9 - buyers 14 keys

Emerald Allurement Taunt: Rancho Relaxo - https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff7735dedd1f65e99610ff0 - buyers 12 keys

Strange Spook Specs - https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff62ac2c253ec6b5cb27f5b - 3 keys

Fountain of Delight Taunt: The Meet the Medic - https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff75e3628f7afa6f40de84f - buyers 8.5 keys

The Lurking Legionnaire - https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff77536edd1f65e996130fd - 0.5 key

35.5 + 14 + 12 + 3 + 8.5 + 0.5 = 73.5 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff41cc920b24366a7dd8fac - buyout 99 keys

This sale is 74 keys minimum

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/9541955106

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017#!/compare/1611619200/1611705600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040255714#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

Sold for 87 keys

Sales

45

60

43

90

53+

45+

75+

87

I'm not going to go and do the minis for the items I took buyers for on the basis that a lot of these sales are high considering the recent trade in classifieids listings.

Trend in classifieids listings in the past 2 weeks

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604407d642b8e2e586f8efce

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60455127003593c8c17e83e2

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60469e8b0edc846f3258ea63

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6047f2d851963e5e4314224e

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604934e5ab3bae53ef3b6e7e

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604a9d1038e646161a809f8c

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604bf99cef09ad91ae4bbe50

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604d43c6df1b0895b5118af4

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604e879af645db38b4da918a

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604fd97fc99f502d9c1edd03

https://gladiator.tf/listings/605133cdd767bcd0ddab9425

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60528cf1b0e4a26f5c79715b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6053c721e8a6fdd434181024

https://gladiator.tf/listings/605516801bc2b83b87e8379d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/605683f44d7cb962a0386236

https://gladiator.tf/listings/605793fddf46bfdfc15bd64b

On the basis that 51 keys has been there for a while, Going to range this from 43 - 60 keys.

Thanks K1ng:

Sold with a Ventum Reindoo for 95 keys, so it basically sold for 51

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263836417#!/compare/1616457600/1616544000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006971039#!/compare/1616457600/1616544000

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60556383c45e473d47bbf507 ----- B/O of 44

https://gladiator.tf/listings/605644d31f6015c8c4574668 ---- B/O of 51

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006971039#!/compare/1616544000/1616630400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1616544000/1616630400

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072238182#!/compare/1618704000/1618876800

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31171;5;u173 ----- ~68 keys

So sales at 43, 45, 51, 60, 68, 87, 90. 51-68 seems reasonable now. Most of the 80+ sales are either outdated or about to go outdated.

Aj addition:

I'm a bit torn including the 68 sale

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6058e91777b468eb813c860c - that's only because apapa was at 51 keys.

If Erik did not sell at 17 keys above the lowest seller on classifieds, he wouldn't have turned around and bought apapa's one, and now he's listed at $199.99

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6036d12f2dc64be24ef1e787 - apapa was at 57 keys 1 month ago

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60407faa5e89c594d7d24543 - and then 53 keys 3 weeks ago

I just think if less than 60 keys couldn't sell in over a month, why should the higher marketplace sale here be included? It's already listed above the market price looking at the splatter of lower sales here and it's always good to take marketplace sales with a grain of salt regardless.

To top it off:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Reindoonibeanie?filter=serenus

Seller at $149.50 on SCM

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

Key prices are $2.37 but floating around $2.40 recently

$149.50/$2.40 = 62.29 keys

Also here's a Mannco sale:

https://mannco.store/item/32406

Apr 4th - $99.95 / $1.91 = 52.33 keys

Thanks K1ng:

Made sense to include 68 to even the range out, considering that you are excluding pretty much every 'high' sale and at the same time are including all 'low' sales.

The thing is that many of the sales are now outdated, so I suppose 51-60 could work too.

Running with that for now, will change if higher sales do occur