I like Shows

Thick Shred Marmalade

Sellers: - https://gyazo.com/0552b68294096bf6cc540b465eaa89f0

https://backpack.tf/item/3870319726 - young @ 8.09 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/1475044333 - 4 days @ 10 keys

Sale 1)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200 - Untrace

Sale 2)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1619308800/1619395200 - Sold via buy order, likely for ~6 keys https://gladiator.tf/listings/6085cc028933a0e1f661524c

Sale 3)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132577068#!/compare/1619308800/1619395200 - Untrace

Sale 4)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1615075200/1615248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049208680#!/compare/1617148800/1617235200 - Untrace

Sale 5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391546909#!/compare/1617235200/1618531200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060059269#!/compare/1616889600/1617840000 - Untrace

Sale 6)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1618876800/1618963200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198830156567#!/compare/1612915200/1619395200 - Sold for 8 keys + ~1 key in sweets = 9 keys

Buyout was ~7.5 keys https://gladiator.tf/listings/607f1c8df787c9c2b4901552 - treating this with caution

Sale 7)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993913589#!/compare/1617062400/1617148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1617062400/1617148800 - Sold via buy order, unsure what for https://gladiator.tf/listings/6062f0a7d6863fe65f6e769c

Sale 8)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1619740800/1619827200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211113189#!/compare/1619568000/1620432000

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1015;5;u3001

$18.99 / $2.00 = 9.5 keys

No buyout

Sale 9)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1619049600/1619136000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1619136000/1619222400 - Untrace

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/4450418419 - Excluding the banned user's trades

Sale 10)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054823708#!/compare/1619481600/1622073600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198956419345#!/compare/1621555200/1621641600 - SCM, untrace

Sale 11)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1617926400/1618012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054823708#!/compare/1597708800/1619481600 - Untrace

Sale 12)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135274720#!/compare/1617148800/1619136000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1617321600/1617926400 - SCM, untrace

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/3786077934 - Excluding scrap.tf transfer (and the transfers before) since it's not the scrap.tf unusual bot, so it was unusualified later on

Sale 13)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045022302#!/compare/1622246400/1622332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078195232#!/compare/1622246400/1622332800 - Sold for a Screaming Tiger Shred Alert - Seems high here

No buyout

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/2203112229 - Excluding scrap.tf transfers and quicksell.store bot transfers

Sale 14)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60929b45f92d526c0a520925 - Sold for 5 keys + 48 ref (~0.8 keys) = 6 keys, once rounded

Sale 15)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1618876800/1619222400 - Sold via buy order, unsure what for https://gladiator.tf/listings/6077d9e52d88ee58356d4374

Sale 16)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1621123200/1621209600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145258431#!/compare/1621641600/1621900800

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1015;5;u3001

$21.99 / $2.00 = 11 keys

Sale 17)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006971039#!/compare/1621123200/1621209600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1621036800/1621123200 - Bulk

Sale 18)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620950400/1621036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006971039#!/compare/1620950400/1621036800 - Sold for 7 keys

Sale 19)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198187767515#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200 - Sold for 5 keys + 40 ref (~0.75 keys) = 6 keys, once rounded

Sale 20)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198821886249#!/compare/1619222400/1619308800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198187767515#!/compare/1619222400/1619308800 - Bulk

Sale 21)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1619049600/1619136000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198821886249#!/compare/1618876800/1619222400 - Likely bulk, 1:1 with company man seems way too high else

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/1546717952 - Excluding tradebacks between user and quicksell.store bots

Sale 22)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279381715#!/compare/1609459200/1616889600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1616803200/1616889600 - Using there to price

Sale 23)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200 - Untrace

Sale 24)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043845306#!/compare/1618704000/1619222400 - Sold via buy order, unsure what for https://gladiator.tf/listings/607b1e3a94700272725078f0

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/1476172405 - Excluding stn trade

Sale 25)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045611871#!/compare/1622073600/1622160000 - Untrace

Sale 26)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620432000/1620518400 - Bulk

Sale 27)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376885782#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200 - Untrace

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/1475044333 - Excluding suspected scammer transfers and quicksell.store bot transfers

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/1473562634 - Excluding tradeit.gg transfer

Sale 28)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303886984#!/compare/1616889600/1617062400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078252542#!/compare/1616976000/1617062400 - Untrace

Sales 29 - 31)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1015;5;u3001

$22.22 / $2.15 = 10 keys

$17.99 / $1.99 = 9 keys

$22.22 / $2.00 = 11 keys

Sale 32)

https://gyazo.com/7ed4b7d2e8cdd9151ac7623010f3349a - Sold for 7.5 keys

Sales:

6, 6, 7, 7.5, 9, 9?, 9.5, 10, 11 and 11

Calling 6 low due to buyers, sales at 6 do support using 7 as the low-end here

Calling 10 and 11 high due to sellers and past sales, these data points are all marketplace.tf sales and are likely slightly high anyway

Using 9.5 as the high end since it's not countered by the seller at 10 and the data points at 10 and 11 support

Roughly excluding some high and some low sales to even out

Thanks =)