History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/7194827421

Added 3 keys for the Disco Beat Down A Rather Festive Tree, better used there:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210893300#!/compare/1619481600/1619568000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112386075#!/compare/1619222400/1619568000

20 keys + ~1 key of Refined, =21 keys (histories match but the keys come from the buyer's bot):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112386075#!/compare/1619913600/1620432000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1620345600/1620432000

This was likely a buy order dump

Rest are tradebacks

History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/2612462196

Bulk/Backpack buy:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040075215#!/compare/1616716800/1617494400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132808609#!/compare/1617062400/1617494400

Sold on Marketplace.tf in April without a buyout

History 3: https://backpack.tf/item/2551154697

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985963488#!/compare/1620259200/1620864000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1620777600/1620864000

25 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1621814400/1621900800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048815630#!/compare/1621814400/1621900800

28 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048815630#!/compare/1621814400/1621900800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1621900800/1621987200

Buyer sold on Marketplace.tf in May without a buyout

History 4: https://backpack.tf/item/2141948664

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101207830#!/compare/1573257600/1618876800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075890408#!/compare/1618790400/1618876800

Dumped to a bot for 20 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075890408#!/compare/1618876800/1618963200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103818277#!/compare/1618876800/1618963200

Bot transfer:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103818277#!/compare/1619740800/1619827200

Sold for 27 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1621728000/1621814400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234581744#!/compare/1621728000/1621900800

Most likely the same sale that shows on Gladiator.tf stats: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Collector%27s%20Buffalo%20Steak%20Sandvich&at=2021-06-19T16:04:04.150Z

Marketplace.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/311;14

April 11: $79.99/2.09=38.27 ~38.3 keys

May 28: $79.99/2=39.99 ~40 keys

SCM: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Collector%27s%20Buffalo%20Steak%20Sandvich

https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?appid=440&market_hash_name=Collector%27s%20Buffalo%20Steak%20Sandvich

April 9 3 AM: $69/2.37=29.11 ~29.1 keys

April 22 3 AM: $47.11/2.31=20.39 ~20.4 keys

May 4 3 AM: $70.42/2.42=29.09 ~29.1 keys

May 6 3 AM: $40.15/2.41=16.65 ~16.6 keys

May 8 3 AM: $79.98/2.42=33.04 ~33 keys

May 9 3 AM: $40.42/2.46=16.43 ~16.4 keys

May 25: 8 AM; $80/2.48=32.25 ~32.3 keys

May 29 3 AM: $42.72/2.47=17.29 ~17.3 keys

June 3 6 PM: $43.26/2.5=17.3 keys

Sellers:

Classies: N/A

SCM: 75.85/2.39=31.73 ~31.7 keys

Buyers:

Classies: Up to 18.66 keys

SCM: 46.63/2.39=19.51 ~19.5 keys

Sales at: 16.4, 17.3, 17.3, 20, 20.4, 21, 25, 27, 28, 29.1, 29.1, 32.3, 33, 38.3, 40

Given the buyers, 16.4-17.3 already looks low. 20 and 21 were buy order dumps too. 32.3-40 is definitely gonna be high here.

Gonna go with 25-29.1, gonna round to 25-29 keys for neatness