I am dying, thanks to this Messiah for helping me do this hell https://backpack.tf/u/76561198253093948

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9510360803

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850021147#!/compare/1623283200/1623369600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048843640#!/compare/1623283200/1623456000

Sold for:

Strange Specialized Killstreak Frying Pan - https://gladiator.tf/listings/60c14bdce4c43ad1751cfa7b - 34 keys

Smoking Détective Noir - https://gladiator.tf/listings/60c5fface07d4d6f722b4a39 - closest I could get, 11.5 key buyers

10 keys

34 + 11.5 + 10 = 55.5 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60ba056b4620483ebdc1d430 - 80 key buyout

Taking as 56 keys, a bit undervalued I suppose but this might end up being too high, we'll see

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048843640#!/compare/1623456000/1623542400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028970071#!/compare/1623456000/1623542400

Almost feels like a 1 for 1 with the Mallard Cotton Head

Mallard has current buyers 3 keys higher, we'll see where this should be used

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028970071#!/compare/1624579200/1624924800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1624492800/1624579200

Sold for 49 keys and some ref

Rounding down to 49 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Disco%20Beat%20Down%20Cotton%20Head&at=2021-07-19T06:01:38.947Z - it's one of these buys

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9274608194

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178042934#!/compare/1619222400/1624147200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346669763#!/compare/1621641600/1626220800

Untrace

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/7957144360

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294287295#!/compare/1620172800/1620345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1620086400/1620172800

Bulk item trade with qs.store

Excluding, cotton valued at buy orders

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1620518400/1620604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1620518400/1620604800

Untrace

Sale 7

MP

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063618946#!/compare/1626134400/1626652800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967207158#!/compare/1626566400/1626652800

Sold for 48 keys

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/7956774516

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1618876800/1618963200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121749963#!/compare/1617062400/1619136000

Untrace

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/7956656197

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309332713#!/compare/1620172800/1620345600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252026134#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

21 keys match up

Blizzy Trilby and 23 keys leave buyers inv

Blizzy Trilby instantly dumped to buyer for 21 keys and some ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60931422c15156adf1443306 - 45 key buyout

21 + 21 = 42 keys

I imagine not all 23 keys leaving buyers inv go to icebro because of the amount of craft refs coming into the buyers inventory too

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252026134#!/compare/1621036800/1621123200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303886984#!/compare/1621036800/1621123200

Bulk untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7955902976

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1619654400/1619740800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340437816#!/compare/1617667200/1619827200

A bunch of smaller hats match:

Purple Confetti Kiss King

Smoking Gentleman's Gatsby

Circling Heart Outdoorsman

Circling Peace Sign L'homme Burglerre

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Disco+Beat+Down+Cotton+Head - idk, this sale was damn near 2 months+ ago now

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340437816#!/compare/1619827200/1621987200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1619827200/1619913600

Untrace

Sale 14

Moved to bot

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1626393600/1626480000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841786141#!/compare/1626393600/1626480000

Sold for 47 keys?

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60f20ed8b5d91c4d77514145 - buyout 48, could've been underpay manual accept

Taking as 47 keys for now

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/3955219171

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200834423#!/compare/1623715200/1623801600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040073503#!/compare/1623715200/1623801600

Sold for 48 keys 41 ref

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/2913557941

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198845372449#!/compare/1620432000/1620691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1620604800/1620691200

Untrace

Sale 18

MP

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/2793150159

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219848423#!/compare/1619568000/1620259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1620172800/1620259200

Untrace

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1620518400/1620604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048583077#!/compare/1556064000/1620604800

Untrace

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/2518044640

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199135952616#!/compare/1619827200/1619913600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391817672#!/compare/1619395200/1619913600

Probs 44 pure

Maketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30175;5;u62

May 20th - $99.99 / $2.00 = 49.99 keys

Jun 13th - $99.99 / $1.91 = 52.35 keys

Sales

56

Mallard Cotton

49

48

42

47

49

44

50

52

Sales but ordered

42

44

47

48

49

49

50

52

56

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/1cz5teb

19 days unsold at 52

Bot at 51

Buyers just over 43 keys

Conclusion

I would probably exclude both 42 and 44 here, 42 is a bit low and 44 is an older sale

To balance it out, I'd probably also exclude 56 since it's a tad high given the unsolds at 52

Range can be 47 - 52 keys here