Sold for 21k 44ref at scrap auction: https://scrap.tf/auctions/X4L1RP

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050560740#!/compare/1626998400/1627084800

but it looks like it was dumped to a bot right afterwards, probably for around 20k:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1626998400/1627084800

can't really trace, maybe 19-20k+ or something:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057457426#!/compare/1626048000/1626566400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348395086#!/compare/1623888000/1624060800

This looks like 19k 27ref sale to me, looks like it could line up https://gladiator.tf/listings/60ceeb0cde5983989cbf0210:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348395086#!/compare/1624060800/1624320000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348395086#!/compare/1624060800/1624320000

looks like the hat was then listed on mannco.store immediately afterwards: https://mannco.store/item/440-circling-peace-sign-unusual-galvanized-gibus

MP sale: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30003;5;u18

$49.99/2=~25k (could be high)

untrace, but we could assume it was around 19k or something - https://gladiator.tf/listings/60b7f7e068c678aabf861a3f:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020689909#!/compare/1622505600/1622678400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1622592000/1622678400

could have sold for 20k 19.33ref, most recent snapshot available shows a little higher - https://gladiator.tf/listings/60c49b8b1b5f47f3224c375c:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1623542400/1623715200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083363051#!/compare/1623542400/1623628800

looks like 20k sale to bot, but doesn't appear in history - https://backpack.tf/item/9630137726:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144909435#!/compare/1623974400/1624492800

seller had it listed for 22k: https://gladiator.tf/listings/60d1a6107368a0d430e306fb

can't trace precisely:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027785685#!/compare/1624233600/1624406400

looks like max's + gibus for a sunbeams festive tree (w/ VFB):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079869886#!/compare/1623542400/1623888000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144909435#!/compare/1623456000/1623888000

max's buy orders were at ~33k (https://gladiator.tf/listings/60c90d3480e9605f5066718f). Tree is in-date at 53.5k, giving us a value of 20.5k for the gibus. This might be high considering the tree was spelled though.

can't trace + looks like bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027785685#!/compare/1624665600/1625097600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037271185#!/compare/1626998400/1626998400

Sales:

22 (or dump for 20), 19-20 (maybe), 19, 25, 19 ish, 20, 20, 20.5 (might be a high estimate)

25 looks like an outlier to me, considering current unsolds would also be high, so excluding. Current buyers at 20+ so going to excluding 19k sales. Going to exclude 22k also given it looks like it was dumped.

Going with 20k, which happens to be a refresh :)