Sales??

Sale 1: Sold for $500 mp.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/920;5;u19;strange

Key price at the time = $1.98

500/1.98=252.53 – rounding up to 253

Sale 2: Mixed...

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303886984#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

81+DByD Hellmet (60 at time of sale)

= 141

Sale 3: Umm...

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/920;5;u19;strange

Sold for $185...

Key price at the time = ??

Mp.tf doesn’t track back that far, can only assume around the $2.00 range

Gonna predict this sale to be 92.5 keys... (93 if you must)

Still can't use this cuz it's an outlier and the confidence of sale is iffy

Sale 4: WHAT??

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1594512000/1594598400

Strange CH + GC sold for 145…

GC also unpriced, bought for $230 on mp.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/920;5;u6;strange

Offline suggested 116, then found out it was resold...

What do I do with this information

Sale 5: ok, maybe better?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309178418#!/compare/1614816000/1614902400

Sold for Beams Tree (57), Double Spelled Miami Brainiac (current normal ones priced 240, going with that), Emerald Allurement Headcase (9-10), Grail Bunny Hopper (4.5), Mistletoe Shoestring (14-16)

=326

Latest Sale: bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161479472#!/compare/1622678400/1622764800

PE Cotton Head (97.5 [new suggestion]), GE Reindoonibeanie (65 [suggested by Shuffle Spy]), CPS War Pig (52)

+102.95 in sweets

Altogether 97.5+65+52+102.95=317.45 rounding down to 317

Only one thrown around market. These are all sales compiled from this hat (since the time it was unboxed). Currently one other known instance, but that one kept in backpack.

All sales thus far = 253, 141, 326, 317

If I exclude the 141, can do 253-326, and neaten it up to 255-325.

[Also, I messed up, I should have double checked the sales. Found out sale 5 was actually 326 not 280... Sorry...] Hence why the suggestion says 315 not 325. Would like to see if evidence is sufficient enough for price change.

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Miami Hairpiece

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Brainiac%20Hairpiece/Tradable/Craftable/61

Only sales at 240 and 250

Were there any sales recently? LMK pls

75 definitely priced before the misc inflation since DBD is on sale for 300

Headcase sales

https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Taunt:%20The%20Headcase&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=3041&killstreak_tier=0

Bunnyhopper sales

https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Taunt:%20The%20Bunnyhopper&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=3003&killstreak_tier=0

Shoestring sales

https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Shoestring%20Santa&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=175&killstreak_tier=0

Sell orders probably not very good evidence. That specific brainiac in sale 5 was sold for 1/1 quarks tundra and 1/3 menacing miasma mister bones (both unpriced). Therefore sale 5 is not very easily priced. Would like some advice please.

Summarising known sales and usability:

Sale 1 = 253, kinda old (1 year), unusable(?).

Sale 2 = 141, outlier, unusable because below buy orders of non-strange ones (~151).

Sale 3 = ~93, outlier, unusable because below buy orders of non-strange ones.

Sale 4 = ??, outlier, unusable because below buy orders of non-strange ones.

Sale 5 = 198 (all 5 items based off buy orders only), usable (sale ~5 months ago).

Sale 6 = 318 (103-max's, strange balloonihoodie, strange summer shades based off buy orders, everything else based off bp.tf prices), reindoonibeanie recently priced at 65 as expected, cotton head based off new suggestion of 97.5, war pig price based off bp.tf. usable (sale ~2 months ago).

New range = 198-318, neaten to 200-320

Using the idea that "If a strange item sells for 50 keys and the non-strange sales are 80-100 keys, it's a pretty good clue that 50 keys is an outlier".

If cotton gets rejected, puts latest sale at 330.

Either way this suggestion is doomed. Should I bother suggesting a price? I am going to keep it for a while, and the other owner now has a private bp, won't be more sales unless someone unboxes another one.