Sale 1 (10.58 keys):

Inv compare function didn't capture the trade. I have provided screenshots, should suffice.

https://imgur.com/a/BcP0drN

Aces data miner + 2 keys + 7 ref (0.12 keys) for S. Festive Sandvich (12.7 keys).

12.7 - 2 - 0.12 = 10.58 keys

(S. festive sandvich price is 6 days old, no mini needed).

Sale 2: (12.7 keys)

Inv compare function missed this one too. I have provided screenshots, should suffice. Hat desperately needs a update.

https://imgur.com/a/Bbl9nPw

Aces data miner for Flies Crabe (9 keys) + highway star (3.66 ref) + backpack expander (29 ref) + 3 keys + FN Anodized Aloha Holy Mackerel (A$0.50 - SCM) + Killstreak Fab (Rubbish)

Total trade value = 12 keys + 32.66 ref (0.54 keys) + A$0.50 (Keys are A$3.10; therefore, A$0.50 / A$3.10 = 0.16 keys)

= 12.7 keys

(Flies Crabbe price is only 2 months old, seems fine. Sweets are all being traded at current prices, should be fine. No minis needed.)

Marketplace.tf Solds: 10.56 keys - 13.89 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30051;5;u59

Sales at $19 - $25 (based off keys at $1.80; 10.56 key - 13.89 key range)

Hat was sold most recently on MPTF on 5th Aug 2021 for $24.99/13.89 keys

(Bot inv - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216470085#!/compare/NaN/1628035200 )

Buy orders:

All seem to be 8.73 keys. This is lower than recent solds but certainly supports the notion of a price drop (from 17 keys) being required.

Unsolds

Only other on the market has been sitting unsold at 17 keys for 3 weeks at this point. Supports a price drop.

https://www.trade.tf/listings/search/Sell/Unusual/Data%20Mining%20Light/Aces%20High/All/1

NEW PRICE:

Taking a 10.5 to 13.5 key range based on evidence provided.

Final Notes:

Id like to apologize for not being able to use the compare backpack feature for these trades. If anyone would like to check the backpacks for themselves I will link below:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200420351#!/compare/1627776000/1627862400 (First seller)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069420477#!/compare/1627689600/1628121600 (First buyer, 2nd seller)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199120204837#!/compare/1627689600/1627948800 (2nd buyer/MPTF seller)