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Lower tier unusual effects such as Vivid Plasma and Ring of Fire are sitting at around 25 keys. There are only two know circling heart Murderer's Motif.
Vivid Plasma - https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Murderer's%20Motif/Tradable/Craftable/16
Ring of Fire - https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Murderer's%20Motif/Tradable/Craftable/117
Recent trade for 20 keys and 20 refined metal - https://imgur.com/a/WxuIsTh
Recent trade for 21 keys - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1625788800/1625875200
Recent trade for 21 keys - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002692491#!/compare/1625788800/1625875200