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History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/6219939359
Bulk:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1624579200/1624665600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280524116#!/compare/1624579200/1624665600
Untraceable, possibly the Marketplace.tf sale though:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280524116#!/compare/1624579200/1624665600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198443129839#!/compare/1624579200/1624665600
History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/2810282232
https://mannco.store/item/440-toxic-terrors-unusual-taunt-spent-well-spirits
$5.53/1.69=3.27 ~3.25 keys, no buyout
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3046
$6.99/1.88=3.72 ~3.7 keys
taking 3.25-3.7 keys here
The marketplace key price was $1.85 on the 28th Jun, making the sale 3.78 keys which rounds to 3.8 keys
The mannco.store key price was $1.70, but that doesn't make any difference to the sale
There's also some missed sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280693486#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354459626#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400 - Some keys + ref match in compares
https://gladiator.tf/listings/612e8654cb9c0db1433b04ea - Sold for 3 keys + 35.77 ref (~0.6 keys) = 3.6 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062329277#!/compare/1626998400/1627084800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280693486#!/compare/1626998400/1627084800
https://gladiator.tf/listings/60fa7882110d26772e648302 - Sold via buy order for 2 keys + 53.77 ref (~0.9 keys) = 2.9 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199143627226#!/compare/1630281600/1630454400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280524116#!/compare/1630368000/1630454400 - Not sure, sweets + keys match IDs, but that seems weird from a bot. I would exclude that
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198807625970#!/compare/1630281600/1630368000 - Untrace
https://backpack.tf/item/3131238880 - Can't trace Crust --> Yppircs
Nothing really supports using the buy order sale here. The 3.6 key sale fits the range, but I would resuggest the high-end given the key value situation.
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2021-06-28&price=6.99 the mp key price is actually from here, it's the average of the key price 3 days before and after the sale
I've spoken to Shuffle and indeed the key average prices are taken, I will accept this as it's perfectly fine, albeit the missing sales but they fit the range anyway. I do apologise for getting that wrong :D