Ah yes, time to be a masochist thanks to the cross guy :)

Sale 1 in July:

https://backpack.tf/item/10288815110

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31143;5;u159

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2021-07-31

July 31st: $119.99/1.81 ~ 66.3 keys

Considering this high end an outlier, plenty of other evidence.

Sale 2 in August:

https://backpack.tf/item/9399160203

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1628640000/1628726400

Going to reasonably assume it's the 40 trade as the other unusuals are worth significantly less.

Sale 3 in August:

https://backpack.tf/item/9398454482

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1629331200/1629504000

Looks like 40 keys unless some wacky shenanigans from exchanges.

Sale 4 in August:

https://backpack.tf/item/9348888950

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160148045#!/compare/1627776000/1627862400

Sold on market on August 1, only one sold at $51.15/2.33 (SCM average value then) = 22 keys

Kind of an outlier but not as bad as one coming up.

Sales 5 and 5.5 in July:

https://backpack.tf/item/9305087731

Mannco.store, tried to add buyer to ask for their price, they never accepted and looks like they ignored/blocked me without notice. Nice!

Messed with the url a bit and ended up with the sales history:

https://mannco.store/item/440-pyroland-nightmare-unusual-seared-sorcerer

https://mannco.store/item/1 (for key prices at the time)

July 17th: $73.98/1.68 ~ 44

July 18th: $74.98/1.68 ~ 44.6

So basically 44-45 I guess...?

Sale 6 in July:

https://backpack.tf/item/9288262142

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074457853#!/compare/1625616000/1625961600

Sold for 15, an even further outlier which makes less sense considering the current quickbuys.

Sale 7 in September:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070664972#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800

My own purchase at 38!

Out of range but other "recent" mp.tf sales for interest:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31143;5;u159

June 4th: $99.99/1.99 ~50 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2021-06-04

May 26th: $119.99/2 ~60

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2021-05-26

March 3rd: $119.99/2.17 ~55.3

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2021-03-03

Following the 2 month rule these are not usable, but are fun to look at. Nothing else.

To be reasonable I will use my purchase as low end, and the mannco.store price(s) as the high. As of typing, current sellers also support this range.

Well that was fun, hope I don't need to edit/close this again!