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Hoi
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/10651516991
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322183028#!/compare/1632096000/1632182400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036272372#!/compare/1632009600/1632096000
146 keys match
Taking as 146 for now, not sure if keys gained were spent on the taunt
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/10557282750
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322209988#!/compare/1629331200/1629417600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053700606#!/compare/1629244800/1629331200
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Frozen%20Aurora%20War%20Paint%20%28Factory%20New%29
$128.85 on Aug 19th
That is pretty low for a war paint of this calibre, excluding, buyers on SCM higher already
Sales
146
146 flat it is
item 1 has been bought from unboxer right after it become tradable:
unboxed on Sep 12 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322183028#!/compare/1631232000/1631404800
sold on Sep 21 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322183028#!/compare/1632096000/1632182400
also then it seems to be sold for higher price https://i.imgur.com/P2kjyTt.png, i suppose it was Oct 8 scm sale (~220 keys), but i dont have more proof then this :/
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Frozen%20Aurora%20War%20Paint%20%28Factory%20New%29
third SCM sale is around the suggested value. Since that is all over the place I feel accepting as is here is fine.