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Worst suggestion of my life (part 8, back to mini-ing the spellbound tricorne)
Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/10654750858
Sale 1: Sold for a starstorm slumber duck billed hatypus (220 from https://backpack.tf/suggestion/614f1a75d5a55356b0227db3) and 30 keys. 220 + 30 = 250.
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372616713#!/compare/1632096000/1632268800
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453055175#!/compare/1632182400/1632268800
Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/6737466872
Sale 2: Sold in bulk for a spellbound tricorne (hatypus + GE blast defense + 365 keys). Better used on the tricorne.
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104146629#!/compare/1632441600/1632528000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115354925#!/compare/1631836800/1632528000
Taking 250 keys.
Item #1 also had a Steam Community Market sale.
https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?appid=440&market_hash_name=Strange%20Unusual%20Duck%20Billed%20Hatypus
["Sep 13 2021 08: +0",318.897,"1"]
$318.89 / $2.27 = 140 keys
I saw the Nether Trail listing on Steam before it sold. But you can also tell based on the tradability status:
The hat was Non-Tradable on Sept. 19th
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453055175?time=1632009600
The hat became tradable on Sept. 20th (a week after the SCM sale)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453055175?time=1632096000
I think that 140 is very likely an outlier, especially when looking at the non-strange version: buy orders are at 130k for it https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Duck%20Billed%20Hatypus/Tradable/Craftable/104
I think for unusuals without strangifiers its a fair assumption to say that strange is more valuable than non-strange, I could always try to suggest the normal one to get some extra data points.
Actually, this is not necessarily the case. The strange and non-strange should be treated as separate items for pricing purposes if there are no strangifiers available. If the strange sells for less than the non-strange, it can be priced lower.
New sale on item 1, but it seems untraceable.
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065825165#!/compare/1632787200/1632873600
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372616713#!/compare/1632787200/1632873600