The Mostacho was updated to 15 keys - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61845900e38f4e3dd716496f - Making sale 2 37 keys not 40

Other sales here:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342161127#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1634169600/1634256000 - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1631923200/1632009600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040220388#!/compare/1631923200/1632009600 - Sold for 41 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1630454400/1630540800 - Buy order sale, likely ~37 keys https://gladiator.tf/listings/612fa31843edf035fe7b4d75

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253093948#!/compare/1634256000/1634342400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1634256000/1634342400 - Buy order sale, likely ~37 keys https://gladiator.tf/listings/6169cf8436053f2980354717

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063433163#!/compare/1634256000/1634428800 - Untrace, was resold for 37 so it won't be too usable anyway

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1633132800/1633219200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063433163#!/compare/1633132800/1633219200 - Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199040744579#!/compare/1632960000/1633046400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240599376#!/compare/1632960000/1633046400 - Bulk

https://mannco.store/item/440-circling-tf-logo-unusual-federal-casemaker

$53 = ~31 keys, seems very low

As you're excluding a sale as it's above sellers its best practice to screenshot the sellers, like so - https://gyazo.com/6e5973aed297af93355fb6b21e9c35c8

Since your 40 sale is now 37 and there's lots of support I would go 37 - 41 keys here