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sold for 40 keys pure
https://bonka.rs/PHD/0f7f289.jpg
This shouldn't be priced until after the event is finished.
it is a valid sale and a starting point... could be updated if other owners decide to sell and price changes
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110575081#!/compare/1634428800/1634515200 - 25 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243128080#!/compare/1634515200/1634601600 - 30 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1634256000/1634342400 - 40 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078435541#!/compare/1637798400/1637884800 - Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132113819#!/compare/1638403200/1638489600 - No Mini for the Paint; Knife's only sale is 25 Keys
https://imgur.com/a/5obVGdI - Seller at 33 Keys
Given 25 and 30 both sold in a day max, both can be excluded as quicksells. 33 to 40 would work here.
Gonna close this due to lack of response to Lemons' comment.
Downvoted, its still too early to price the new effects
Plenty more sales here that will need to be investigated
https://backpack.tf/item/6293543584
https://backpack.tf/item/6196807039
https://backpack.tf/item/5407343023
https://backpack.tf/item/4279364398
https://backpack.tf/item/4120515608
https://backpack.tf/item/3841685747
https://backpack.tf/item/3698469965
https://backpack.tf/item/3305931096
https://backpack.tf/item/3028840213
https://backpack.tf/item/2723573438
https://backpack.tf/item/2711329931
https://backpack.tf/item/2692485208