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Man what is this
Sales 1,2,3: $19.99, $17.19, $17.19 on marketplace https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31080;5;u162
19.99/1.81 = 11.04 (rounds to 11k),, 2x 17.19/1.87 = 9.12 (rounds to 9k)
Sales 4,5: $15.66 and $16.95 on mannco https://mannco.store/item/440-gourdian-angel-unusual-convict-cap
15.66/1.65 = 9.49 (rounds to 9k), 16.95/ 1.68 = 10.09 (rounds to 10k)
https://backpack.tf/item/9289891758
Sale 6: 8 keys 10 ref
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050056686#!/compare/1634688000/1634774400
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1634688000/1634774400
https://backpack.tf/item/9346762242
Sale 7: Untrace
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042405022#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400
Sale 8: Untrace / bulk
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1634860800/1634947200
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053697018#!/compare/1634860800/1634947200
Rest of the history is mp/mannco sales covered above.
Sales at 8, 9, 9, 9, 10, 11. Current seller at 9 and multiple mp listings at 9, so clearly price has changed since the 11k mp sale.
Excluding the sales more than 2 months old (mp 11k sale, mannco 9k sale) and taking 9-10.
I think the multiple listings at 9 you mentioned, and the majority of 9 sales here suggest 10 would be a bit high here
I felt it was either 8-10 or 9 flat, which are the same end result (the 10 sale is more recent than the 11 sale)
Unfortunately I think original sugg at 8-9 really is the best range here
Considering marketplace sellers are currently at 9 keys (2 listings), the other suggestion at 8-9 keys will work better. It's not a good idea to include 10 keys in the range based on mannco/marketplace sales when there's currently key/cash sellers for cheaper. Especially with 2 marketplace listings for cheaper, 1 of which is pretty old. Additionally there's a new sale that was likely 9 as well. See my comment here as well: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/617d4b2e5f1ffb31dc66fb6f