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Credits to khiro for a sale:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125086452#!/compare/1638576000/1638748800
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/556751260636938261/917514706158243870/unknown.png
2x Holiday Headcase (73) + Pumpkin Moon Blast Defense + Smoking Brainiac Hairpiece (64.5) + Steaming Exquisite Rack (bo at 140)
[Pumpkin Moon Blast Defense mini:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024176550#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198869144080#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600
Sunbeams Blast Defense (~87) + Disco Beat Down Brainiac Hairpiece (195) = 282k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045327094#!/compare/1634169600/1634428800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001634629#!/compare/1634083200/1634428800
Death by Disco Prehistoric Pullover (287) + Strange Coffin Nail Rocket Launcher (Minimal Wear) + Strange Coffin Nail Grenade Launcher (Minimal Wear) + Strange Coffin Nail Shotgun (Minimal Wear)
don't know how to value strange coffin nail skins
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001634629#!/compare/1634428800/1634515200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146046621#!/compare/1634342400/1634515200
like somewhere 540-590k? seems high
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146046621#!/compare/1635292800/1635379200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1635292800/1635379200
Ancient Eldritch Prehistoric Pullover (90 bo) + Burning Flames Combustible Kabuto (65 bo) +
Sunbeams Hunter in Darkness (101 bo) + ~300 keys = 556k
560k B/O https://gladiator.tf/listings/617a81d97b7c927dbd0233d8, so prob just put this sale at 560.
~280-560k, gives 420k midpoint.]
73 + 420 + 64.5 + 140 = ~700k
https://backpack.tf/item/2805166450 - clean
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198246045168#!/compare/1630195200/1630281600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1630195200/1630281600
added for Perennial Petals Ballooniphones, use there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1631318400/1631404800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263190057#!/compare/1631059200/1631318400
dunno, alt?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/7656119826190057#!/compare/1631404800/1631491200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1631318400/1631404800
guessing this sold for some amount of keys, no idea how much, previous sellers at 700-800k, buy orders 500k+ https://gladiator.tf/listings/613ce0f95a603c5a1c1d704d
MP:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30329;5;u58
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2021-11-18&site=marketplace.tf
Nov 18, $1400/1.92=729.17, rounds to 730k.
seller at 700 for some time but that one's a dupe: https://gladiator.tf/listings/614f82cbdb99df694852968d
https://backpack.tf/item/2536613367
sale at 600k used in previous suggestion is just barely outdated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/556751260636938261/876633659464118322/unknown.png
700-730.
420 value on the p moon blast is meh, considering a seller at 425 and a fragile market
the rack has several usable sales, I don't think using buy orders at 140 is a good indicator of its value.
not too relevant in terms of proof but i considered the blast to be a bit under 400 and the rack to be ~175 when making the trade.
rack:
this looks like 153k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1638403200/1638489600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970299920#!/compare/1638403200/1638489600
looks like 180k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140162979#!/compare/1638403200/1638489600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143589141#!/compare/1638489600/1638662400
like ~215k when adding the pro ks kits
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1632787200/1632873600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084095917#!/compare/1632873600/1632960000
(looks a bit high w/ three 200k sellers tho)
153-180 would make the sale about 730
153-215 would be ~745
and as both of you noted, mini for pmoon defense might be high here, so idk
might be best to just use the mp sale for now, and use my sale as supporting evidence for a raise, since the market for the blast is all over the place and pure/cash sales are most concrete. should wait for mod response though.
New Polar sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121326314#!/compare/1640304000/1640476800 - 533 Keys + Stormy Cat Pajamas (no sales)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075581725#!/compare/1640649600/1640736000 - Bulk sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1640736000/1640822400 - 655 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055847835#!/compare/1641513600/1641686400 - Bulk
Additional Blast sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990998139#!/compare/1636329600/1636416000 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1637193600/1637280000 - Somewhere around the upper-300s
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007696852#!/compare/1637366400/1637452800 - Use for the Warhood
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990998139#!/compare/1637280000/1637366400 - 350 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077784491#!/compare/1636416000/1636502400 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125896125#!/compare/1636848000/1636934400 - Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1640131200/1640217600 - I hope this wasn't a 1:1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153818314#!/compare/1639094400/1639180800 - 330 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043808939#!/compare/1634860800/1634947200 - Little low
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198847680167#!/compare/1635033600/1635120000 - Little high
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1636329600/1636243200 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1639958400/1640131200 - 365 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012537041#!/compare/1638662400/1638748800 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001634629#!/compare/1639440000/1639612800 - Cloudy Chapeau + Pro KS Aussie Medi + 33 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001634629#!/compare/1642032000/1642118400 - The Chapeau sold here for 350 Keys
Taking 350 for the Chapeau gives the Blast a sale at ~470 Keys. A range of 330 - 470 would work for the Blast with its current sellers.
The Steaming Rack got updated to 190 Keys, so sale 1 is also ~730 Keys.
665 to 730 would work as a range for the Polar.