Countering at $0.02-0.03 given comments on current $0.02 suggestion, precedent from a previous ref suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ff4f91df0cb933da6765c5a

Credits to Offline for these sales: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61ad133772fcaa5eaf7e1b43

Key price recently accepted at 66.77-66.88: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61aa1cd9296592611b294294

BUT keys seem to be floating around 67.33-67.44 at the moment, which I have suggested at: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61b37acf9c53fd6eaa17d134,

this shouldn't affect values very much however.

Given keys currently at 67.385 ref, sales below $1.69 per key round to $0.02, and any higher sales round to $0.03

Sales from over a week ago:

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78361-%F0%9F%90%B6-buying-keys-160-max-40-backpacks-more-via-cashapp-230-rep-no-paypal-bork/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198068732040

Buying keys for $1.60 - 170 keys in past week

Edit: Now 400 more keys

$1.60 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 per refined

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78488-buying-keys-for-16-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198306145097

Buying keys for $1.60 - 200 keys in past week

$1.60 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 per refined

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76896-blazexth3rm4lx-is-buying-keys-for-162-usd-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198061108999

Buying keys for $1.62 - 100 keys in past week

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66758-wtb-buying-keys-for-162-usd-via-paypal400-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198063345374

Buying keys for $1.62, none in past week but the key buying thread is active

Offline bought something like 900 keys for $1.62 each

https://gyazo.com/2e2e69c8501ee57cbeff39d490e6c216

https://gyazo.com/97ad6f03264cb7353114f0de2d009b43

https://gyazo.com/2ef21fcef6a23bd3b1ab5daf130f30b1

https://gyazo.com/276ea94b57196b4f69edc213dd6ff751

https://gyazo.com/daa533bcb5ea4653da09503af7873bd9

$1.62 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 per refined

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68510-buying-keys-for-163-backpacks-via-paypal-400-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198032176942

Buying keys for $1.63 - ~300 keys in past week

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76871-buying-keys-163-each-buying-special-keys-ref-tools-backpacks-paypal-100-trust/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198031258757

Buying keys for $1.63 - ~150 keys in past week

$1.63 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 per refined

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78280-buying-keys-164-backpacks-quicksells-via-paypalwise-140-trusts/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793885

Buying keys for $1.64 - 1500+ keys in the past week

$1.64 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 per refined

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-165-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696

Buying keys for $1.65, none in past week but the key buying thread is active

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79108-buying-tf2-keys-for-165-usd-usa-paypal-only/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198309612194

Buying keys for $1.65, none in past week but the key buying thread is active

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78962-buying-tf2-keys-at-165-each/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198318065526

Buying keys for $1.65 - 200 keys in the past week

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79822-buying-280-keys-via-paypal-for-165/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561199104872642

Buying 280 keys for $1.65, 250 were bought and the thread has not been bumped since

$1.65 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 per refined

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76949-selling-keys-for-zelle-no-fees-crypto-possibly-no-fees-venmo-no-fees-cash-app-no-fees-for-167-100%E2%80%99s-to-1000%E2%80%99s-in-stock-100000-keys-recent-rep-with-240-trust-no-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198120347528

Selling keys for $1.67 - Thousands sold in past week

$1.67 / 66.83 refined = $0.024 refined

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79825-buying-200-keys-17-usd-each-via-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198022041905

Buying 200 keys for $1.70, the thread was made 12/2, a trade was conducted 12/2 (on the trust page), and the thread has since been closed.

Keys for $1.70 sold extremely fast, I will exclude this as an outlier.

$1.70 / 66.83 refined = $0.025 refined, which would round to 3 cents

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Cedarium:

Seller at 1.7 who sold out https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/47271-closed-rockets-keys-for-17-via-paypal

Not sure if there are any trusts you can find, but I purchased 200 from this user (if needed, could get proof)

1.7/66.83=$0.254

I've bought 600 at 1.7 and 100 at 1.68 in the last week or so, I just only put up a thread for 200 of them

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Boreal:

1000 keys bought yesterday a week ago for $1.677 each

Paypal proof: https://imgur.com/a/2sPbWs7

Steam trade: https://imgur.com/a/ycwrwwx

This would be 1.677/66.83 = $0.02509 per refined which would round to $0.03

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-166-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198014404374

Selling keys for $1.66, 1700 in the past week

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79304-buying-keys-165-backpacks-with-cash-via-paypal-no-rep-needed-6000-in-stock-%F0%9F%92%B2/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198030343929

Buying keys for $1.65, 200 in past week

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78610-buying-keys-164-and-backpacks-with-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056681334

Buying for $1.64, 550 bought

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79108-buying-tf2-keys-for-164-usd-usa-paypal-only/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198309612194

Previously was buying for $1.65, now buying for $1.64, 50 keys recently on trust page

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/77764-%F0%9F%92%B8selling-keys-~-171%F0%9F%92%B2-buying-keys-for-cash%F0%9F%92%B2-%F0%9F%A4%9D-trusted-trader%E2%9C%85-152trust%F0%9F%A4%9Dpaypalbankukcoinbasecashapprevolut%F0%9F%92%B3negotiable%F0%9F%92%AC/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198086948995

Selling keys for $1.71, 2000 in stock, has some sales in trust page recently

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https://gyazo.com/89c4ef018e310644efd6b3ee3a51391c

https://gyazo.com/8d1a92225061efb0a3eb3ccb98be486d

https://gyazo.com/a00d7b10f29490ddfcceb1210560dbcb

130 keys for $1.64

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79806-buying-279-keys-with-paypal-i-cover-all-fees-166/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198035332989

Bit on the older side, lot of success buying keys for $1.66

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Sales from this week (keys shift to 67.38 ref):

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/46678-buying-tf2-keys-162-paypal-any-amount-up-to-10000-keys-reliable-bulk-purchases/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198091502579

Buying keys for $1.62, 500 keys in past week

$1.62 / 67.39 refined = 0.024 cents

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-166-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198014404374

I've posted this thread before, but more sales at $1.66 since I last posted it

$1.62 / 67.39 refined = 0.0246 cents

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-167-usd-paypalcashapp/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198167002874

Selling keys for $1.67, 700/1600 in past week

$1.67 / 67.39 refined = 0.024 cents

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79835-looking-to-buy-150-keys-via-paypal-164-usd/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198116801784

Bought 150/180 keys for $1.64

$1.64 / 67.39 refined = 0.0243 cents

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76871-buying-keys-160-each-buying-special-keys-ref-tools-backpacks-paypal-100-trust/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198031258757

I've also posted this thread before, but more buys at $1.60 since I last posted it

$1.64 / 67.39 refined = 0.0237 cents

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-165-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696

Buying keys for $1.65, 1000 bought in past week

$1.65 / 67.39 refined = 0.0245 cents

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68510-buying-keys-for-157-backpacks-via-paypal-400-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198032176942

https://gyazo.com/2179d670614fa071c213dbf1baae834b

https://gyazo.com/f2ea55f9b8b4756ed8b378ba9ec3800a

Changed price to $1.57 23 hours ago (from a day ago), has two trust noting sold keys within that time period

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-165-usd-paypalcashapp/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198167002874

Selling keys for $1.65, 938 in stock at time of writing

Edit: dropped price to $1.63 now, seems ~800-1000 keys sold under this new price

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-163-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198014404374

https://gyazo.com/a3123dc30710119328d71fe62331a4e4

Changed selling price to $1.63, their selling price was previous at $1.66 the three times it was mentioned in this suggestion

Edit: at least 73 and or 1500 bought since this was posted

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78280-buying-keys-158-backpacks-quicksells-via-paypalwise-140-trusts/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793885

Key buying price dropped from $1.64 to $1.58 from the last time it was mentioned in this suggestion

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-160-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696

Key buying price dropped from $1.63 to $1.60 from the last time it was mentioned in this suggestion

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79863-buying-keys-with-160-per-key-through-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198139171368

https://gyazo.com/257fb4d03250cf2df15347368ba1826f

Buying keys for $1.60, thread posted 18 hours ago and there is a trust stating 300 keys were sold 17 hours ago

Edit: 1500 new keys sold

$1.57 / 67.39 refined = $0.023 per refined

$1.65 / 67.39 refined = $0.024 per refined

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Further evidence for dropping:

The following threads have been posted in here already, but have since dropped their key buying price:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-163-paypal/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66758-wtb-buying-keys-for-157-usd-via-paypal400-rep/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76871-buying-keys-155-each-buying-special-keys-ref-tools-backpacks-paypal-100-trust/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76896-blazexth3rm4lx-is-buying-keys-for-156-usd-paypal/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68510-buying-keys-for-157-backpacks-via-paypal-400-rep/

Also, I know using Marketplace as proof isn't concrete evidence in the context of a refined suggestion, but the price of keys dropping on Marketplace is also a telltale sign of refined being too high

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys at a 6 cent drop over the past few days

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

Less sales of refined at 4 cents on Marketplace, already overpriced at 4 cents regardless but now less volume is being moved.

Proof of anything rounding to 3 cents is quickly being countered by lower sales and sellers - If there is proof of it, it's heavily outweighed by everything else.

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New sales:

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/46678-buying-tf2-keys-162-paypal-any-amount-up-to-10000-keys-reliable-bulk-purchases/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198091502579

240 bought at $1.62 in the past day

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78962-buying-tf2-keys-at-165-each/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198318065526

180 bought at $1.65 in the past day

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https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79822-buying-280-keys-via-paypal-for-165/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561199104872642

200 keys at $1.65 in the past day

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Arguments for $0.02-0.03 range:

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Chaos Theory:

I'm honestly struggling to understand why you think $.02 is better than $.02-03.

A range of 2-3 cents would value keys at $1.67 with current key/refined ratios, which is right in line with your key sales.

2 cents flat would result in a key price of $1.34, which is nowhere near your key sales.

You can see a range in action here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ff4f91df0cb933da6765c5a , where .03 was changed to .03-.04 even though basically all the sales would have rounded to .03. However, adding .04 to give a range of 3-4 cents, and giving an average of 3.5 cents, resulted in a more accurate price at the time than either 3 or 4 cents would. Easy.

So please, help me understand the issue with pricing refined at 2-3 cents. Refined would then be valued at 2.5 cents, resulting in a key price of $1.67, which is pretty much 100% in line with the sales you provided. But instead, you would honestly rather take 2 cents flat and have keys valued at $1.34, which is obviously much less accurate, as well as flatly contradicting your proof?

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[KRL] seVen:

While there is no evidence of sales rounding to 3 cents, i do think we need a range here.

The discrepancy between 0.024$ and 0.02$ scaled to entire backpacks to just too large.

You've collected sales at 0.023 to 0.025 $ and an average of 2.5 ct would be much more representitive than 2 ct flat.

I've done the same in this accepted suggestion, so idk why it shouldn't be done this way again.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ff4f91df0cb933da6765c5a

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Brown:

Boreal and Cedarium posted a 1000 key sale at $1.68 and 700 at $1.7, and there were thousands in sales at $1.67 the week this was suggested. Current sellers counter these sales in price but not volume. The minimum successful undercut to these is only by 2 cents per key, sales just yesterday https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-165-usd-paypalcashapp/

Representing $1.65 - $1.7 gives an average over $0.025, rounding to $0.03, so there's actually no sense to not having a range here.

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TL;DR

An overwhelming number of sales here are under the $0.025 mark, hence rounding down to $0.02. Further increase in key metal price also supports this lower value.

However, as users above have argued, despite the majority of sales rounding down to $0.02, $0.03 should be included as a high end so that the price of ref is more representative of its actual selling price, which hovers around $0.023-0.025

Hence suggesting at $0.02-0.03 here.