Flierfries

https://backpack.tf/item/10256907177

Sales 1 & 2: $27.99 on marketplace https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31114;5;u152

27.99/1.81 = 15.46 (rounds to 15k), 27.99/1.87 = 14.97 (rounds to 15k)

Ignoring trades to and from banned user (SR marked scammer)

https://backpack.tf/item/9956568478

Sale 3: Untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1636156800/1636243200

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139679163#!/compare/1636156800/1636329600

Sale 4: Untrace / bulk?

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139679163#!/compare/1636156800/1636329600

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199191922181#!/compare/1636070400/1636156800

Sale 5: Untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199191922181#!/compare/1635465600/1635638400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439484034#!/compare/1635465600/1635552000

Sale 6: untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439484034#!/compare/1633996800/1634515200

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1634256000/1634342400

Sale 7: untrace/bulk

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1634169600/1634256000

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354459626#!/compare/1634169600/1634256000

Sale 8: untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198354459626#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198795826430#!/compare/1634083200/1634169600

Sale 9: untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198795826430#!/compare/1633392000/1633478400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803769563#!/compare/1633132800/1633478400

Sale 10: 13 keys? Histories seem questionable, but nothing matches to the key history person ( https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060299122#!/compare/1632528000/1632614400 ) so I’m assuming that the keys were traded to buyer

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198803769563#!/compare/1632441600/1632614400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189522007#!/compare/1632528000/1632614400

Sale 11: 11 keys 18.66 ref

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189522007#!/compare/1632268800/1632355200

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199151053511#!/compare/1632268800/1632355200

Sale 12: Untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199151053511#!/compare/1632268800/1632355200

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198968135084#!/compare/1632096000/1632355200

Sale 13: Untrace

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198968135084#!/compare/1631664000/1631750400

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163268898#!/compare/1631664000/1631750400

Sale 14: 11 keys

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163268898#!/compare/1630108800/1630195200

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198885993611#!/compare/1630108800/1630195200

Sale 15: approx 10 keys?

25 keys are removed from buyer compare, and 15 of them match with the pickelhaube here https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054070811#!/compare/1629590400/1629849600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198885993611#!/compare/1629590400/1629849600

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136318095#!/compare/1629849600/1630195200

Sale 16: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31114;5;u152 - new sale at $27.99 (15 keys)

Gladiator note: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frisky%20Fireflies%20Head%20of%20Defense&at=2021-12-20T09:13:54.759Z - 7 sales at 12~ keys

Sales at 10, 11, 11, 13, 15, 15, 15. Buyers were at 12, so ignoring sales below 12. Gladiator has 7 sales at 12, so we’re including 12 in the range.

It has been unsold at 14 for a while:

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6133b36eb056cf1c75052d7b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/615b1ca4769bac7d874ce1c0

https://gladiator.tf/listings/61841149a5ce84eb503ce9bf

https://gladiator.tf/listings/61ab19a4f54f19e17c851e44

So we’re taking 12-13.