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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043082159#!/compare/1635120000/1635292800
39 keys, isn't it?
idk the 39 keys all came from Oli but the hat only has 2 person history which excludes oli. i figured since it was during october end the hat was removed perhaps it was sold on scm? imo need to verify it but whatever
to clarify this, here's both compare links:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043082159#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400 seller of the hat
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161389997#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400 buyer of the hat
the buyer compare (2nd link) sold some spelled items (some of them went to oli) and then spent the keys in the same day -- this makes it look like no keys were received for the spelled items in the 2nd compare but just the puffy polar, and then the keys still have the history from the users who bought the spells in the 1st compare
additionally, the same day it was bought, the buyer of the puffy polar painted, gifted, named, and described it, which is why the near ID does not match
so it took me couple of times to read it to get my head around it. buyer sold spelled items and then goes on to buy the unusual with the keys on the same day. we do not know how much keys he spend since it doesn't show how many keys the buyer got before trading for the unusual in question.
however, lets say the buyer gets an ammount greater than or equal to 39 keys for the spells - and spends all of it, i confirmed by going through each key on the sellers history that it does go from oli>aqua so it is plausible to say that it could have been Oli>Buyer>seller like you stated. i can accept that.
idk if it made sense but tldr: all keys 39 keys come from oli so like you said the buyer spent all the keys from the spelled items and what not on the hat.