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upd.
1.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198864446634#!/compare/1634083200/1634774400
2.100k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056086416#!/compare/1636848000/1636934400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284789781#!/compare/1636848000/1637193600
3.200k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284789781#!/compare/1639785600/1639872000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198970103#!/compare/1639785600/1639872000
4.40k - exclude
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295860135#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1635120000/1635206400
5.https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31000;5;u201
sold for 219.99$ - 10.11.2021 - $219.99 / $1.88 = 117.02 keys
6.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011535596#!/compare/1636675200/1636761600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284789781#!/compare/1636675200/1636761600
total: 100-200k avg 150k
sale 1 is the guy unboxing it, not a sale
sale 6 is the guy selling it on scm for what looks like $120:
https://imgur.com/a/HsvG8S4
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Hephaistos%27%20Handcraft
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198284789781#!/compare/1636675200/1636761600
considering the buyer in sale 5 was the seller in sale 6, so 117 keys -> ~57, id say both should be cancelled out
sales at 40, 57, 100, 117, 200
i am seeing no support for 200 whatsoever, if i had to price this myself i would put it at 100 flat but even that's a stretch
I was thinking the same thing, but 200 is still there