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upd.
1.11k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300039170#!/compare/1637971200/1638057600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013909713#!/compare/1637884800/1637971200
2.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013909713#!/compare/1637971200/1638057600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1637884800/1638057600
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31149;5;u158
3.26.11.2021 sold for 34.99$ - $34.99 / $1.86 = 18.81 keys
4.23.12.2021 sold for 45$ - $45 / $1.81 = 24.86 keys
total:
sellers 12.7k
buyers 9.5k
11k
If the sales are all over the place like this its best to leave this unpriced until we get more sales
Well, given the requests and sellers, 11 more than I think is justified here, maybe I'm wrong of course.
At the time most of these happened, the market wasn't as tightened as it is now. To exclude 3 out of 4 sales (there's another mp sale in this time frame which is also 23 or so) feels weird, especially since 11 is the statistical outlier based on these sales.
Based on these sales, all we can say is that the market has shifted since, and that the sales at that time were not representative for its current value. Yes, the value is probably between what buyers pay and sellers ask, but thats the only indication we have here, as it is not at all supported by the sales we have here (which are from a few months before).
You're not wrong for comparing the sales to the buyers/sellers, but in a situation like this it does not work unfortunately.