https://backpack.tf/item/9303337458

nothing here:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30827;5;u159

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023051867#!/compare/1636848000/1637020800

seems untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/9418302451

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148047430#!/compare/1629936000/1632960000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253293366#!/compare/1636243200/1638489600

untrace SCM sale

https://backpack.tf/item/9354005979

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198954144702#!/compare/1634515200/1634601600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198383523581#!/compare/1632268800/1634601600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198383523581#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204215085#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

bulk buy alongside bauble and shred

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204215085#!/compare/1634774400/1634860800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199166352898#!/compare/1634774400/1634860800

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199166352898#!/compare/1636243200/1636329600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1636156800/1636243200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pyroland%20Nightmare%20Brain-Warming%20Wear&at=2021-11-21T22:47:18.282Z

~7.5k matches

New sales (Credits Lemons):

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30827;5;u159 - $22.22/1.83=~12k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336315504#!/compare/1642550400/1642723200 - The sweets seen, >7.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1642723200/1642809600 - Sold for 8 keys using near IDs (11209540464)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1642032000/1642118400 - Sold for 8 keys here too

Others:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868767328#!/compare/1641686400/1642291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168563614#!/compare/1642118400/1642291200

7k 21ref matches, ~7.5k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168563614#!/compare/1642118400/1642291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336315504#!/compare/1642204800/1642291200

Taunt: Conga (1.85) + Taunt: Mannrobics (1.75) + Specialized Killstreak Festive Eyelander (2.4) + 3 keys = 9 key matches

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199166352898#!/compare/1636243200/1636329600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102199351#!/compare/1636156800/1636243200

7k 28.11ref matches, ~7.5k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013845880#!/compare/1642291200/1642550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1642291200/1642550400

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280524116#!/compare/1642723200/1642809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524#!/compare/1642723200/1642809600

bulk

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30827;5;u159 - Two listed for $22.22/1.83=~12k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1641600000/1641686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003404879#!/compare/1641600000/1641686400

8k matches

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003404879#!/compare/1641600000/1641686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010582245#!/compare/1641254400/1643414400

untrace

Sales:

7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8 8 8 9 12

Listing by Gamma for 10 keys has been unsold for months: https://gladiator.tf/listings/619740136f7e8731292ad236

To me indicates 12 is high here.

https://gladiator.tf/listings/61f7bc9c92000fc7d4c5487b

Quite a few buyers at 8 does seem to suggest 7.5 is a bit low now, but given the majority of sales are at this value, don't think it's appropriate to exclude.

Going 7.5-9.