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upd.
1.sold for Nebula A Head Full of Hot Air 126k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022768015#!/compare/1640217600/1640649600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282873040#!/compare/1640563200/1640649600
2.sold for Pumpkin Moon Warhood - 118k
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081010489#!/compare/1639612800/1639699200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1639699200/1639785600
3.untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081010489#!/compare/1642118400/1642550400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1642118400/1642204800
total: 118-126k avg 122k
100 Keys were added to the Warhood, and I'm almost certain that the buyer dumped the Prancer's to Merendas for something much lower.
https://gladiator.tf/listings/61bc1345f59e1f60ed909f5c - Oli's buyout was only 150 Keys, so that's a massive case of overpay which shouldn't be used here.
126 flat would work.