Blaze:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1642982400/1643068800

https://gladiator.tf/listings/61ee6d672e93b218ff67805a

sold with Harvest Moon Commando Elite for 625 keys (below 450 keys given the buy-order of 170 keys on the harvest moon)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138014202#!/compare/1642464000/1642550400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1642464000/1642550400

buyer who paid 525 seems to have dumped this + a large portion of their bp a few days after the purchase

the harvest moon should be mini'd here to give this a range of 375 - X (i wouldn't include 525 here given what happened after)

[Mini for Harvest Moon Commando Elite

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137131429#!/compare/1637107200/1637193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061779536#!/compare/1636329600/1637107200

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023538848#!/compare/1637107200/1637193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060408403#!/compare/1637107200/1637193600

i dunno

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060408403#!/compare/1637107200/1637193600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1637107200/1637193600

same day bulk?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199190065455#!/compare/1639699200/1639785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057317770#!/compare/1639699200/1639785600

i guess this could be 1:1 w/ darkblaze outdoorsman, potential value of 230-300 from here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61c0cb9dc81d550ce01397b7, but 3 month unsold at 250 suggests that would be kinda high https://gyazo.com/777b75603db6b3e564145ee617a07195

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057317770#!/compare/1640217600/1640304000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1640304000/1640390400

this is some sort of tradeback/bulk for frostbite executioner/whatever, it's a mess

That is followed by the sale being used here.

Resorting to using a ~4 month old sale from here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6170c60555b5b328600d8689

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069806273#!/compare/1634601600/1634688000

https://gyazo.com/f2f83794b5385c8bbfcbd4ae1e384671

175 keys

This is close to the buy order at 173 https://gyazo.com/777b75603db6b3e564145ee617a07195, unsold at 250

175.]

625 - 175 = 450 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075581725#!/compare/1641859200/1641945600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138014202#!/compare/1641859200/1641945600

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/298073323219320834/930736471571308564/unknown.png

525 keys (credits to -=NHS=- Kwas)

https://backpack.tf/item/2985802598

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1636675200/1636761600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025680881#!/compare/1636675200/1636761600

https://gladiator.tf/listings/618f4b3235b9115072a2f35e

may have been some kind of quicksell, untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025680881#!/compare/1639180800/1639353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010637145#!/compare/1639267200/1639353600

Pullover + Potassium Bonnet (~43 https://gladiator.tf/listings/61b55e98dd256edff83579d2 https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Potassium%20Bonnet&at=2021-12-12T01:12:24.749Z)

for

Fifth Dimension Rotation Sensation (205, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61de29c21b507272d1550541) + Frostbite Company Man (213)

205 + 213 - 43 = 375 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010637145#!/compare/1639440000/1639526400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306872661#!/compare/1639440000/1639526400

probably bulk buy alongside DP antlers

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306872661#!/compare/1641168000/1641254400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325221574#!/compare/1640822400/1641254400

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Polar%20Pullover

SCM on Jan 4, $1188.21/2.09=568.52 keys, seems a bit high given an unsold at 400 keys listed at the time: https://gladiator.tf/listings/61d4b86b5c5e4d97fcca6f38

https://backpack.tf/item/4804637008

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30329;5;u60

$710/1.83=387.98 keys, ~390 keys

So the 390 MP sale went for 525 within a week, new buyer however has listed for 550: https://gyazo.com/00692c3cf594b01a65b55f79baf7218c, suggesting the 569 sale is still a bit high.

Going with 375-450 under Blaze's comments.