https://backpack.tf/item/9617796073

Tradeback

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199064630127#!/compare/1639699200/1639785600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313168077#!/compare/1639353600/1639785600

Looks like Bubbling Polar Pullover + Strange Crossing Guard (~3)

Pullover sold for 310 keys after: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1639872000/1639958400 https://gladiator.tf/listings/61bfe7401ca601e8e2c38a90

Other stuff was potentially added on buyer's side, but going with ~315 for now.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313168077#!/compare/1644624000/1644710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1644537600/1644624000

Looks like a 1:1 w/ a Pyroland Daydream Patriot Peak (100, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6210d99bb051e67b5804aa41)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1644624000/1644710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1644537600/1644624000

120 keys match

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/201;11;u702;w2;pk208;kt-3

$350 / $1.78 = 196.63 keys, ~195 keys

Judging from the three sales after it, the first sale was probably a lot less than ~315, so excluding that.

Sales:

100, 120, 195

I'm also inclined to exclude 100 here given it resold the same day for 120.

Going with 120-195 keys.