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1 seller on Backpack for 190 keys.
1 seller on Mannco for ~185 keys.
3 sellers on Marketplace starting at ~185 keys.
All fit the range nicely with all of the evidence I have.
Found as many possible in-date sales as I could:
Item #1
https://backpack.tf/item/10860940573
Sale #1: Untraceable. Buyer says he bought for 180 pure, which fits the range perfectly. I'll sleep on this one for now.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977705860#!/compare/1638835200/1639008000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177146103#!/compare/1638921600/1639008000
Sale #2 and 3: Hat moved twice in 1 day for 200 and 210 pure.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177146103#!/compare/1639008000/1639094400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248209800#!/compare/1637971200/1639094400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197974943082#!/compare/1639008000/1639094400
Sale #4: Sold with bulk for a Golden Pan.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1639958400/1640044800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197974943082#!/compare/1639958400/1640044800
Taking (180?), 200, 210
Item #2
https://backpack.tf/item/10860366098
Sale #1: Sold with bulk for Arcana Titanium Tyrolean.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310424539#!/compare/1643760000/1643846400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1638489600/1643760000
Item #3
https://backpack.tf/item/11317240918
Sale #1: Sold for 140 pure. Lower than buy orders
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999542517#!/compare/1638835200/1639008000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133319499#!/compare/1638662400/1639008000
Sale #2: Sold with bulk for Spellbound Gatsby.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1640563200/1640649600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133319499#!/compare/1640390400/1640649600
Sale #3: Sold for 150 pure.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177146103#!/compare/1645228800/1645315200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1645228800/1645315200
Taking 150
Item #4
https://backpack.tf/item/11110766604
Sale #1: Looks like it sold for 67 pure + ~50 key hat. Rounding to 120. Lower than buy orders.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177146103#!/compare/1639094400/1639180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207823797#!/compare/1638921600/1639180800
Item #5
https://backpack.tf/item/11097827906
Sale #1: Sold for 150 pure.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040099512#!/compare/1639094400/1639180800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177146103#!/compare/1639094400/1639180800
150, 150, 200, 210
Taking 150-210 (~180)
Yep, 210 is too high here
because?..
Seller is 190, More than a month
Heard that. Ill leave the suggestion open, If more sales happen Ill add them in
Seller 190, don’t think 210 sale can be included. It has been there for over a month aswell.
Sale's a sale tho. Don't think its that high that it is an outlier. There were sell orders at 250-300 not too long ago too. And buy orders consistently ranged at 130-150 last 3 months.
P.S. mentioned seller already
yea seller at 200 rn, 210 def high
New sales: Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302622358#!/compare/1649376000/1649462400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1649376000/1649462400
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076637124#!/compare/1647129600/1649808000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1649721600/1649808000
~190 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30755;5;u201
Best used there
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031673028#!/compare/1650153600/1650240000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132068284#!/compare/1650153600/1650240000
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1650326400/1650412800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132068284#!/compare/1650326400/1650412800
160 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1650758400/1650844800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065231973#!/compare/1650758400/1650844800
165 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069239963#!/compare/1646697600/1646784000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849783241#!/compare/1646784000/1647475200
https://gladiator.tf/listings/6269873366fc90d70bd874eb --- listed at 170
It was unsold at 200 for a while, so anything above that will be high. 150-200 should be fine.
Feel free to resuggest this, closing.