https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103495606#!/compare/1645747200/1645833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827124516#!/compare/1645660800/1645747200

the DBD VRH was bought for 21k https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827124516#!/compare/1645660800/1645747200 11336510477, so the paint was probably ~22k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199012511644#!/compare/1645142400/1646784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198290576781#!/compare/1645142400/1646784000

scm probably

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199065890132#!/compare/1644451200/1644883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135385428#!/compare/1644451200/1644883200

~15k matches, under buyers (guessing this was an auction, so the amount here is unreliable anyway)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135385428#!/compare/1644796800/1644883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198224159528#!/compare/1644796800/1644883200

15k matches, under buyers

https://mannco.store/item/440-strange-polter-guised-war-paint-factory-new

$49.98 / $1.59 = 31.43 keys

one listed at $49.98 (~31-32k)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/17295;11;w1;pk295

$59.99 / $1.82 = 32.96 keys

$59.99 / $1.83 = 32.78 keys

$59.99 / $1.83 = 32.78 keys

$59.95 / $1.81 = 33.12 keys

$59.99 / $1.74 = 34.48 keys

$62.45 / $1.74 = 35.89 keys

https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?country=US&currency=1&appid=440&market_hash_name=Strange%20Polter-Guised%20War%20Paint%20%28Factory%20New%29

(starting from Dec 29 '21)

~27.1k

~26.8k

~30.5k

~21.8k

~21.7k

~21.6k

~21k

~18.2k

~20.5k (x2)

~26.9k (x2)

~21.6k

~21.3k

~25.8k

~25.4k

~25.5k

~21.9k

~15.4k (under buyers)

~25.5k

~21.3k

Classies: https://gyazo.com/94d6c40c9d9a1ea308c7dfec0a06ca94

Buyers up to ~19, unsolds at 40.

There are also quite a few SCM sellers below ~30 keys, so not sure if higher sales should be included. Rounding to the nearest key, and running with 21-27 keys given the SCM market. The lower physical sales also support a lower range.