Resuggestion of https://backpack.tf/suggestion/623b1baa0432261bc4646ab9

The changes between this and the suggestion from earlier this week are that Trade #2 was missing some items, which I have now added to it. Also, the conclusion that I make and the actual price suggested for Strange Tartan Torpedo Scattergun (Factory New) has changed because of those corrections made to Trade #2.

Scattergun Trade #1: 500 keys (in-date, from an accepted price suggestion)

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61f492ffcef8036cb07e07ee

https://backpack.tf/item/10778010544

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081733611#!/compare/1643068800/1643328000

Scattergun Trade #2: some value above 932 keys (740 + 125 + 32 + 16 + 16 + 2 + 1 + ???)

https://i.imgur.com/VtLZhCy.png - Screenshot provided by buyer

https://backpack.tf/item/10778010544

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066569256#!/compare/1643673600/1643760000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068064085#!/compare/1643328000/1643760000

Purple Energy Soldier's Stash: 740 keys

mini: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/623a0bc44e064e54a95b5404

Strange Masked Mender Mk.II War Paint (Factory New): 125 keys

mini: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/623af5f3965f0242ed110fcb

Strange Forest Fire Mk.II War Paint (Factory New): 32 keys

mini: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/62396212397cc56a634fb34e

Strange Forest Fire Mk.II Iron Bomber (Factory New): 16 keys

https://i.imgur.com/iiuRd1W.png - Screenshot provided by seller

The sale was to a bot, but it's all we have to work with.

The item vanished later from the bot's inventory.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202090646#!/compare/1644278400/1644364800 untrace

Going with 16 keys

Strange Forest Fire Mk.II Ubersaw (Factory New): 16 keys

The ubersaw was gifted to a friend: https://i.imgur.com/izzca1L.png

The friend used the ubersaw in a trade-up contract (thus, the ubersaw had no further trades): https://i.imgur.com/62khJIY.png

Let's estimate the price of the ubersaw at 16 keys, to be in line with the same-paint Iron Bomber mentioned above. Both skins were acquired with the intention of using them in trade-up contracts, making the actual weapon irrelevant. In any event, it's the best estimate we have at the moment.

Going with 16 keys

Strange Aloha Apparel: 2 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Aloha%20Apparel&at=2022-03-25T09:37:22.967Z

Sellers at 2.28 keys (2 keys 18.77 ref)

Buyers at 2.27 keys (2 keys 18.22 ref)

Sold - Past 7 days: 1 @ 2 keys 16.66 ref, 3 @ 2 keys 17.66 ref, 1 @ 2 keys 18.77 ref

Bought - Past 7 days: 1 @ 2 keys 14 ref, 1 @ 2 keys 14.77 ref, 1 @ 2 keys 15.22 ref, 1 @ 2 keys 18.11 ref

Rounding to 2 keys

Team Spirit: 1 key

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Team%20Spirit&at=2022-03-25T09:42:37.366Z

Sellers at 1.21 keys (1 keys 14.44 ref)

Buyers at 1.21 keys (1 keys 14.33 ref)

Sold - Past 24 hours: 5 @ 1 key 14.44 ref

Bought - Past 24 hours: 5 @ 1 key 14.33 ref

Rounding to 1 key

Finally, this trade also included one item which is currently unpriceable due to lack of sales data:

Strange Wrapped Reviver Mk.II War Paint (Factory New): ??? keys

The backpack.tf price of 194 keys is from 16 months ago. While not the same item, it's worth noting that a painted minigun of the same paint got priced at 260 keys five months after that (11 months ago). If anything, these paints tend to go up in price. But who knows, maybe it's actually worth less today? We don't know. And that's the problem.

Traded for a Strange Bovine Blazemaker Flame Thrower (Minimal Wear), which is also unpriced and currently unpriceable due to lack of sales data.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068516964#!/compare/1643587200/1643760000

https://backpack.tf/item/11145662978

The Wrapped Reviver war paint was used to paint a Detonator (thus, the war paint had no further trades): https://backpack.tf/item/11251868835

Scattergun Trade #3: 1200 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9297651388

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110369097#!/compare/1647820800/1647907200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109756155#!/compare/1647820800/1647907200

Buyer paid in installments due to not having enough inventory space to store all of the keys at once and was also selling items to come up with keys

https://i.imgur.com/Rww0EZh.png

Keys: 113 + 308 + 565 + 122 = 1108 keys

For the last 92 keys, the seller and buyer agreed on the following:

Screenshot of the Agreement between Seller and Buyer: https://i.imgur.com/LuszkwV.png

Screenshot of the Trade (the scattergun was also delivered to the buyer as part of this trade): https://i.imgur.com/Py473Wq.png

CS:GO skin: Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)

Steam market: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/Desert%20Eagle%20%7C%20Emerald%20J%C3%B6rmungandr%20%28Factory%20New%29

Price history: https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?appid=730&market_hash_name=Desert%20Eagle%20%7C%20Emerald%20J%C3%B6rmungandr%20%28Factory%20New%29

I looked at the most recent 30 sales (5 days) leading up to our trade, and the sales range from $200.58 - $235.00. Median sale: $206.63

$206.63 / $2.14 = 97 keys, which we agreed to count as the last 92 keys owed

1108 + 92 = 1200 keys

Sales: 500, some value above 932™, 1200

The sale for 500 flipped extremely quickly (3 days) for 932+. It's safe to say that 500 should probably be excluded.

The sale for Some Value Above 932™ is also unusable, but it was helpful for making it clear that the sale for 500 is an outlier.

= 1200 keys