Credits to Blaze:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072986766#!/compare/1645660800/1645747200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219926077#!/compare/1645660800/1645747200 - sold for Burning Flames Modest Pile of Hat

scorching casemaker has some valid sales now:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874905974#!/compare/1646438400/1646524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119624879#!/compare/1646438400/1646524800

https://gladiator.tf/listings/62211a213c0cc16efbf0fdac - sold for Purple Confetti Soldier's Stash + 25 keys + Jungle Jersey

An older mini on the Stash, with comments from K1ng https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61f6a091b9a92d74bc7f1037, indicate a possible range being 130-220, 175. So with the Casemaker having a value of ~210

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6234292fb1cfec608b45821d

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028970071#!/compare/1647561600/1647648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098142278#!/compare/1646956800/1647648000 - sold for 250 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003182128#!/compare/1644105600/1646956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028970071#!/compare/1646870400/1646956800 - sold for Scorching Flames Galvanized Gibus

https://backpack.tf/item/5231851801

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241925476#!/compare/1637625600/1637712000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060345661#!/compare/1636588800/1637798400

180

https://backpack.tf/item/5270307112

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058965125#!/compare/1643587200/1643846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253093948#!/compare/1643673600/1643760000

Guessing this is bulk

https://mannco.store/item/440-tesla-coil-unusual-killer-exclusive - listed at $399.99

https://backpack.tf/item/5258374461

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1638144000/1638316800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044719739#!/compare/1638144000/1638316800

1:1 w/ Disco Beat Down Whirly Warrior (in-date at ~151 at time of sale https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6185ad29353203492f1af7cd)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044719739#!/compare/1641859200/1642291200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125086452#!/compare/1642204800/1642291200

Bulk for Scorching Flames Prehistoric Pullover

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125086452#!/compare/1642723200/1642809600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1642723200/1642809600

KE + Ghastly Grove Bat Hat + Sweets for Eldritch Opening Berlin Brain Bowl, use there

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1643760000/1643846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194263363#!/compare/1643760000/1643846400

Festive Lights Patriot Peak, mini:

(Sold for Strange Hot Festivized Professional Killstreak Snow Globalization Bazaar Bargain (Minimal Wear) (100) https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068228498#!/compare/1641513600/1641600000)

(Sold for Sparkling Lights Coldfront Commander (110, outdated sale here https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6176bc27b583ef20af3b2ade) + Glamorous Dazzle Taunt: The Fist Bump (31 bo) = at least ~140)

(Sold for Strange Roboactive Private Eye (100? https://backpack.tf/suggestion/621535e97d6e473c6d1c255a) + 33 keys = ~130 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1644537600/1644883200)

(Going with 100-140, ~120)

+

Smissmas Swirls Taunt: Conga (31, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/621595632dea5e32f91e24c4)

+

Strange Professional Killstreak Bread Bite (6.2-10, ~8 https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Bread%20Bite&at=2022-02-24T02:22:23.983Z)

+

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Death Deluxe Rocket Launcher (Minimal Wear) (~2)

+

Strange Specialized Killstreak Horror Holiday Rocket Launcher (Factory New) (~4)

=

165 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194263363#!/compare/1644019200/1644105600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072986766#!/compare/1643587200/1644105600

Looks like Scorching Flames Federal Casemaker (175, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6216f455fb333613fa2ce253 210, see above) + Circling TF Logo Federal Casemaker (39) = 240 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072986766#!/compare/1645142400/1645228800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035969198#!/compare/1645142400/1645228800

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/5205519839

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323733331#!/compare/1639094400/1639353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131633162#!/compare/1639008000/1639094400

Since the Allbrero sold for 330: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6216f5c30715f863e31aeb2b, that would suggest the KE sold for ~160 keys here (given the remaining keys)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/538;5;u108

$499 / $1.77 = 281.92 keys

Sales:

151, 160?, 165, 180, 214, 240, 250, 282

(The Scorching Gibus and Spelled Burning Modest sales will almost certainly fall in range, or be countered by buyers/sellers)

https://gyazo.com/c8486447394ec1a25ca88ec5936c2737

Multiple unsolds at 250 indicate nothing above that should be included. Buyers at 150-160+ suggest 150 may be a bit low now.

160 as low end given rising buyers. Taking 240 as high end given 250 unsolds.

160-240.