Foamy:

- Sale 3 isnt 381 keys, but 380 + a SBTWC pot. The pot has an open suggestion, but that is based on this sale and uses this TC value, which may therefore be a bit off. I encountered it earlier here:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6208c4f11ee3c740980d1f67

using that in reverse (with my comment in mind) would but the pot around ~670-220 = 450, and therewith the sale at 830. Note that the numbers there are rough estimates and that it may be slightly off, but that would end up around the low end here.

- The Darkblaze BoA sale seemed to be an outlier at first but it may actually not be that much of an outlier in reality (be it still not the best usable sale due to its bulky natue). Aside from the 1400 sale it now also has a sale at 2000 (see https://backpack.tf/suggestion/62195cd3bf90560c1a19ed9b which I will comment on as well), averaging 1700 if we take out the secret TC sale. The salty seems in-date or close to in-date but really isnt, and is very likely around 400 keys too high. By my estimates last time it'd have been around 750 (see here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61908ecaec4d170e7f7c3647 bottom of the comment), so putting that sale in reverse woud be 1700 - ~750 - 185, in the 700s. Shouldn't be included in the range for sure, but an indication that this may be on the high side.

- Aside from that, we've seen a bunch of sellers around 1200 recently, and before we also saw them around 1300, which implies 1350 is high here. The fact that sellers were at 1300 when it sold on marketplace solidify this:

https://gladiator.tf/listings/61e8bbec08ad0a38a44c2cc8

(Courtesy of Shuffle Spy)

I was originally tempted to say this was fine when the 1000 sale happened, but having looked a little deeper into this, I think 1350 really ends up an outlier here, and that 850-1000 is more accurate here. Alternatively you could update the hellfire AA and with that the SBTWC pot, and then use that to give this a new low end, but honestly, I dont think that's worth the effort here given how close I think that'll be. It may even be better to give the pot a range with this sale then.

https://backpack.tf/item/1209821605 - dupe raise

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1640131200/1640217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1640131200/1640217600

https://gladiator.tf/listings/61c2e90557f4567666867488

850k

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1640131200/1640217600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1640131200/1640217600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1641254400/1641340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344363390#!/compare/1641168000/1641340800

381k appears, incomplete

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060478647#!/compare/1642032000/1642118400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113090293#!/compare/1641859200/1642291200

nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1642377600/1642464000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1642377600/1642464000

bulk or something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1642636800/1642723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198851200748#!/compare/1642550400/1642723200

bulk movement

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005472700#!/compare/1643155200/1643328000

nothing

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082861107#!/compare/1643155200/1643328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152373135#!/compare/1643241600/1643328000

bulk for darkblaze BoA

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/378;5;u46 - dunno if this sale is clean or not

$2500/1.83=1366.12, rounding to nearest 50 at 1350k.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1649030400/1649548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032789419#!/compare/1649462400/1649548800

1000 keys

850-1000 as Foamy suggested.