https://backpack.tf/item/11478925451

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288294254#!/compare/1649116800/1649289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078915295#!/compare/1648857600/1649289600

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https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20The%20Fubar%20Fanfare?filter=Festive+Spirit+Taunt%3A+The+Fubar+Fanfare

seller at 34.80 USD / 2.18 USD for key prices = 15.96 keys (rounding to 16)

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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30761;5;u3035

https://backpack.tf/item/7732504685 - seller at 31.90 USD / 1.77 key price = 18 keys

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going with 16 - 20 range