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Most recent sale I could find as of April.
Bought
Past 30 days
1 @ 10 keys
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Prismatic%20Pine%20Festive%20Cover-Up&at=2022-04-26T19:04:37.925Z
https://gladiator.tf/listings/6259b0c7a10b960caaef251e
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225796692#!/compare/1649894400/1649980800
More sales to check out here (past 3 months):
https://backpack.tf/item/10998585673
https://backpack.tf/item/11118944710
https://mannco.store/item/440-prismatic-pine-unusual-festive-cover-up
$23.86 / $1.61 = 14.82 keys
The 10 key sale was probably from this history: https://backpack.tf/item/11047139426
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Prismatic%20Pine%20Festive%20Cover-Up&at=2022-03-29T19:43:19.639Z
The compare you linked is another sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127600487#!/compare/1649980800/1650067200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225796692#!/compare/1649894400/1649980800
Seems like I'm even worse at this than I thought I was. Taking that there are sell listings now at 13 keys, it would still be ideal to price at 10-15 keys, or wait for more sales?
This one was also for 14, being over the current listing prices.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127600487#!/compare/1649808000/1649980800
The mannco.store sale at ~15 probably shouldn't be included as you've said, but you should check for the rest of the sales in this history: https://backpack.tf/item/10998585673
If you're unsure how to check for sales in compares, this guide by aj might help: https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79020-guide-how-to-make-an-unusual-price-suggestion-2021-edition/
Thank you, I'll study unu suggestions a bit more according to this.