Single Sale @ 60 Keys Pure

Proof:

https://imgur.com/a/B0Qh1sv

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199065640323#!/compare/1647907200/1648339200 - 38 Keys

Given the 60 Key sale was for a spelled Tyrannus, that should be excluded as a high outlier in favor of the non-Spelled sale.

38 Keys flat would work here.

I HAVE NO IDEA IMA JUST COPY PASTE!!!!

Something feels off with this new trade and I argue the validity due to a few key factors:

1. The buyer has no other major items or trade history with a one-year-old mostly blank account to public viewers. They have no other unusuals or spells and this item doesn’t seem like something you’d expect someone to buy as their first time unusual or spell item.

2. The seller, while they have a very large inventory, has a mostly non-visible / blank account to public viewers too. The seller has a variety of other unusuals and old Halloween effects for above suggested priced. Despite this the buyer was able to purchase the item for exactly the 8-month-old price rather than anything in line with other price increases for old Halloween effect items.

3. The buyer’s backpack was invisible / private for the last two months and only became active and public as of this trade.

4. The seller or buyer didnt directly post an update / new suggestion, rather another individual.

5. This suggestion would likely have come up or been used during the trade and discussed amongst sellers’ friends since an update was posted by someone else on the same day the trade occurred.

6. While the spell does factor into the price, I’ve had previous trades where items were repriced to purchase value despite spells. (Please refer to my very old Eerie Anger Suggestion). Even without the spell I would argue that the items price is still above 38 keys considering current market trends.

In contrast my sale has these factors (which also prevent my own reasons being used against me):

1. Both buyer and seller are fully fleshed out and established accounts

2. Both buyer and seller have active trade histories

3. I previous sold the item to the seller years ago for around or above suggested price at the time.

4. This suggestion was made by me (1st party) shortly after purchase rather than an outside (2nd or 3rd party) individual

5. Seller was primarily cashing out at the time and knew estimated values of all their items. The seller sold and bought a variety of other large spell and unusual items around the same time.

6. The item was purchased at this higher price knowing Halloween effects had gone up. The spell was taken into consideration but it would not be the sole reason for a 20-30+ Key increase when other chromatic instances exist. While I currently have it listed at a very high price it's because, like most of my items, Im not looking to sell it but if someone is willing to ridiculously overpay then I'll bite.

7. I’ve had people come to me trying to buy this instance for more than 60 which I have declined. When they offer, they typically consider the base price to be 50-60 but were trying to pay extra for the spell and due to the lack of sellers. The fact that none of these individuals who asked about mine, whether they were looking for a spelled instance or not, ended up buying this one for backpack.tf price feels strange. Rather it ended up with a nearly blank account.

Just worried about price manipulation, an alt being used, or a shark/quick sell affecting actual item price. Two sales within a one month span despite so many dead or locked when the last sale gap was 6-8 months ago is also odd but I admit not impossible.|

1) Everyone has their own preferences.

2) It was first listed for 38 Keys in February and didn't sell until the end of March - https://gladiator.tf/listings/61fc7d29007a6fb46a84ef95

Also, Eerie isn't nearly as desirable as the other old Halloween effects, hence why you rarely see Eerie spike in value as much as the other effects.

3) No? https://imgur.com/a/ZspV3au

4) Don't know what this means.

5) This suggestion was made after the sale occurred?

6) There weren't any other clean sales remotely close to when you bought the Anger.

There's no way this constitutes price manipulation when you made this suggestion after the sale.

The buyer and seller are not alts of each other, and 38 Keys isn't a quick sell given that sale took nearly 2 months.

1. Understandable but still pretty sketch that it’s an empty and fairly inactive account except for one large purchase.

2. Mine has been the only listed this entire time since my suggestion. Addendum: I see that this instance was previously listed between March and February, a 1–2-month period. However, my sale would be a higher price after that instance and since then I’ve had people coming to me trying to buy for more. A flat price of 38 doesn’t feel valid and thus the price may need to be ranged. The older sale itself could be argued to have been 40 keys based on the item totals of added and removed at the time.

3. The time difference between the last screenshot and latest screenshot is 3/27/2022 and 5/21/2022, that’s a two-month period of the account having no new data. I stated that the account was inactive for trading / had a private backpack for those two months. I’m saying that the account became re-active or made the backpack public again today. Addendum: I see that I was looking at the incorrect dates and that the item is show as obtained on 3/27. However, it was today, the same day as your update, that the account had a new backpack screenshot which led to my confusion. I thought it was odd but likely just a coincidence.

4. While I'm not saying people can’t make suggestions of items, I’m stating that it feels odd that someone is bringing up this sale, which I was not aware of, only now for an already 1+ month old suggestion which would’ve been close to approval until today.

5. Refer to Addendum in #3. I now realize that this trade occurred before but thought it had occurred after since his latest backpack screenshot is same day as this post update. Therefore, I misread and thought the trade occurred within the last few days / today.

6. My point still stands that even when spelled an item can still have large price increases when there are so few instances of many Halloween effects. Especially with the current overall Halloween effect trend.

I cannot prove nor disprove the accounts have any connections but the buyer account does seem abnormal. I would agree that it was not a quick sell nor price manipulation, again my mistake on getting dates confused due to your update post and buyers latest backpack snapshot being the same.

Not sure what you’d suggest going forward. Should I refresh its base price using this sale you’ve given and mine as proof that it should still be 38 keys? I pointed out the moved items at the time makes that slug look like it sold for 40. The spell alone wouldn’t warrant the full 22 keys extra that I paid and when we traded the seller and I assumed the slug would be up to 40-50 keys non-spelled, it’s not the only chromatic instance.

2) Not all 40 Keys went to Hana. These two did not - https://backpack.tf/item/7329964841 + https://backpack.tf/item/10035365475

4) It could just be that nobody looked into the other sale to point it out to you until now, but that doesn't invalidate the sale.

Yes, I'm suggesting that this be priced at 38 flat to since the spell likely lead to the higher valuation in the 60 Key sale.

38k flat yes

All Credit to ShuffleSpy and Genie, Very Cool

Cheers!