Month 1: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Party%20Calamitous%20Cauldron&at=2022-06-19T09:20:25.187Z

Sales:

1 @ 9 keys

1 @ 9 keys 30 ref ~9.5 keys

1 @ 9 keys 35 ref ~9.5 keys

Month 2: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Party%20Calamitous%20Cauldron&at=2022-05-19T09:20:25.187Z

Sales:

1 @ 8 keys 56 ref ~9 keys

1 @ 8 keys 56.88 ref ~9 keys

Buys:

1 @ 8 keys 15.77 ref ~8 keys

1 @ 8 keys 18.77 ref ~8.5 keys

1 @ 8 keys 18.88 ref ~8.5 keys

1 @ 8 keys 26.77 ref ~8.5 keys

1 @ 8 keys 27.11 ref ~8.5 keys

1 @ 8 keys 28.33 ref ~8.5 keys

1 @ 8 keys 29.44 ref ~8.5 keys

Month 3: https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Party%20Calamitous%20Cauldron&at=2022-04-19T09:20:25.187Z

Buys:

1 @ 9 keys 33.33 ref ~9.5 keys

1 @ 9 keys 40.77 ref ~9.5 keys

1 @ 9 keys 41.11 ref ~9.5 keys

1 @ 9 keys 41.22 ref ~9.5 keys

1 @ 9 keys 41.33 ref ~9.5 keys

~~

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31146;5;u163

$19.39 / $1.75 = 11.08 keys ~11 keys

Sales at 8 (x1), 8.5 (x6), 9 (x3), 9.5 (x5), 11 (x1)

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Pumpkin%20Party%20Calamitous%20Cauldron&at=2022-06-19T09:20:18.756Z seller at 10 keys and mp sellers at ~11 keys. Buyers at 8.68 keys

11 looks like an outlier here, also cutting out 8 since it's inconsistent and buyers are a lot higher

Going with 8.5-9.5 keys