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Resuggesting considering commentary on my previous suggestion. Said commentary pointed out that more weight should be put on what current sellers and buyers are asking. Data included for convenience.
On the date and time of suggestion, STN.Trading were:
buying for 47.44
selling for 48.44
Currently lowest sellers are sitting at 47.44-48 (first three listing pages) and highest buyers are sitting at around 47-48.33 (first two listing pages).
I think this illustrates a range of 47-48 is fair and takes into account current market trends.
As per the data you have included there is not a single sale at 47 ref. Your values must have a valid sale for that specific amount.
I think you should wait a few days before making this suggestion because key prices are not stable yet. It is dropping drastically. At this point of time keeping in view the current sales and classifieds I would park it around 47.77-48 ref.
On my earlier suggestion you were one of the folks who suggested to go for 47-48.
Besides, this is still more accurate than the current suggested price range of 53.33-53.44. And, as you argued yourself, it takes into account prices listed by current buyers and sellers, of which buyers are sitting at 47 on the low end.
I didn't ask you to go for 47-48 refs if you can't find sales at those values I meant to say that the price should be parked between 47-48 ref because in your last suggestion you went with 49 refs. This is a basic rule for making any suggestion that you should have a proof of sale for the values you are suggesting for.
I seem to have misunderstood then.
On your notion that key prices are not stable yet, they haven't really been for about two months now, being on the decline and all. I actually already waited a week before suggesting. I don't know what to make of the slight increase in decline right now as per the data on Prices.tf, but I do feel like it is still pretty much time to update the price to something more accurate. The suggested price here on backpack.tf should be reflective of the market, and in that suggested price we should keep up with the market, even with an ongoing change.
I guess I'll keep this suggestion open for now to let some more folks weigh in. I'll see where it goes after that. Thanks for your input however, much appreciated.
Sure, the current price doesn't reflect the key's value, but I'd wait a tad bit more before settling down on a suggestion. Give it a week or two and the prices might be more stable than they are right now.
Sales have dipped under 47 now. This is quite the rapid decrease in value.
On the one hand I would like to see the price updated, since the current price is no longer reflective of the market. On the other hand, the price seems to be decreasing more rapidly the last 2 weeks than before (see Prices.tf graph). So the choice is to either have a suggested price that is about 7 ref above the actual price, or one that perhaps slightly less off.
Ultimately it might be more useful to just wait it out for another week or so.
Yeah it would be best to wait and see. Tbh looks like it'll keep going down.
I'm hoping ref prices go up with his decrease of key cost
It always does.
the great key crash of 2022, I WAS HERE
Keys aren't really crashing, since there value in fiat currency is just as stable as before. It is probably mostly due to ref increasing in worth.
Most buyers are at 46 ref already, i suggest resuggesting.
Resuggesting considering commentary on my previous suggestion. Said commentary pointed out that more weight should be put on what current sellers and buyers are asking. Data included for convenience.
Link to original suggestion:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/631a4e7dd08da11ab9018505#comment-631b6052d1bc7b8976082674
https://next.backpack.tf/suggestions/631a4e7dd08da11ab9018505
Data from Gladiator.tf from original suggestion - https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2022-09-08T16:20:21.243Z
I put this data in a spreadsheet and calculated the average.
Average price sold: ~49.88
Average price bought: ~50.22
Total average: ~50.11
Current Gladiator.tf data - https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2022-09-09T17:25:27.458Z
Sold past 7 days
Bought past 7 days
It seems like the price is already dropping further below 50 indeed.
Prices.tf from original suggestion - https://prices.tf/items/5021;6
On 8 September 2022 at 12:13, keys were [on median]:
Scrap.tf from original suggestion - https://scrap.tf/keys
On the date and time of suggestion, Scrap.tf were:
STN.Trading from original suggestion - https://stntrading.eu/tf2/keys
On the date and time of suggestion, STN.Trading were:
Currently lowest sellers are sitting at 47.44-48 (first three listing pages) and highest buyers are sitting at around 47-48.33 (first two listing pages).
I think this illustrates a range of 47-48 is fair and takes into account current market trends.
I see I included a comment ID-tag in the link to the original suggestion hosted on backpack.tf. Here is the link with the comment ID-tag removed for ease of use: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/631a4e7dd08da11ab9018505.
As per the data you have included there is not a single sale at 47 ref. Your values must have a valid sale for that specific amount.
I think you should wait a few days before making this suggestion because key prices are not stable yet. It is dropping drastically. At this point of time keeping in view the current sales and classifieds I would park it around 47.77-48 ref.
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2022-09-09T21:48:38.747Z
On my earlier suggestion you were one of the folks who suggested to go for 47-48.
Besides, this is still more accurate than the current suggested price range of 53.33-53.44. And, as you argued yourself, it takes into account prices listed by current buyers and sellers, of which buyers are sitting at 47 on the low end.
I didn't ask you to go for 47-48 refs if you can't find sales at those values I meant to say that the price should be parked between 47-48 ref because in your last suggestion you went with 49 refs. This is a basic rule for making any suggestion that you should have a proof of sale for the values you are suggesting for.
I seem to have misunderstood then.
On your notion that key prices are not stable yet, they haven't really been for about two months now, being on the decline and all. I actually already waited a week before suggesting. I don't know what to make of the slight increase in decline right now as per the data on Prices.tf, but I do feel like it is still pretty much time to update the price to something more accurate. The suggested price here on backpack.tf should be reflective of the market, and in that suggested price we should keep up with the market, even with an ongoing change.
I guess I'll keep this suggestion open for now to let some more folks weigh in. I'll see where it goes after that. Thanks for your input however, much appreciated.
Sure, the current price doesn't reflect the key's value, but I'd wait a tad bit more before settling down on a suggestion. Give it a week or two and the prices might be more stable than they are right now.
Sales have dipped under 47 now. This is quite the rapid decrease in value.
Gladiator.tf - https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2022-09-10T21:35:10.114Z
Part of the data set with sales up to 48 ref.
Sold past 7 days
18 @ 46.77 ref
22 @ 46.88 ref
28 @ 47 ref
35 @ 47.11 ref
27 @ 47.22 ref
57 @ 47.33 ref
189 @ 47.44 ref
44 @ 47.55 ref
44 @ 47.66 ref
41 @ 47.77 ref
112 @ 47.88 ref
157 @ 48 ref
Bought past 7 days
1 @ 40 ref
1 @ 43 ref
9 @ 43.77 ref
1 @ 44 ref
85 @ 45 ref
13 @ 46 ref
13 @ 46.88 ref
5 @ 47 ref
26 @ 47.11 ref
30 @ 47.66 ref
5 @ 47.77 ref
1 @ 47.88 ref
122 @ 48 ref
Down to 46 now, maybe a new suggestion is needed?
On the one hand I would like to see the price updated, since the current price is no longer reflective of the market. On the other hand, the price seems to be decreasing more rapidly the last 2 weeks than before (see Prices.tf graph). So the choice is to either have a suggested price that is about 7 ref above the actual price, or one that perhaps slightly less off.
Ultimately it might be more useful to just wait it out for another week or so.
Yeah it would be best to wait and see. Tbh looks like it'll keep going down.
I'm hoping ref prices go up with his decrease of key cost
It always does.
the great key crash of 2022, I WAS HERE
Keys aren't really crashing, since there value in fiat currency is just as stable as before. It is probably mostly due to ref increasing in worth.
Most buyers are at 46 ref already, i suggest resuggesting.
Proof:https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2022-09-14T15:34:28.509Z
They have gone down to ~45 now. We should wait a week to see where things go. Hopefully the price will be a bit more firm then.