Keys recently accepted at 45.28 ref https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6322b7a8726d5e860605dacc

Sales from the past week, PayPal only

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80968-buying-keys-at-171-paypal-and-163-crypto-buying-backpacks/

https://gyazo.com/77be8f63ccdb7cd55f3220dddbc516b5

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561199183171982

402 + 62 + 107 + 250 bought

$1.71 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80085-buying-keys-for-171-each-paypal/

https://gyazo.com/742c760783caf225c9df088be7607e38

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198006544512

Some bought supposedly

$1.71 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76871-buying-keys-167-each-buying-backpacks-ref-tools-all-items-paypal-150-trust/

https://gyazo.com/1ec8ada21b68471e447ee3ffa1587062

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198031258757

15 bought

$1.67 / 45.28 = $0.037

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78521-buying-keys-at-172-each-with-paypal-also-buying-backpacks/

https://gyazo.com/5aca39f4dfd4e261cc5ed53e8989c238

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198049204840

586 bought

$1.72 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80236-%F0%9F%97%9D%EF%B8%8F%F0%9F%92%B0-buying-tf2-keys-via-paypal-for-173-usd-each-%F0%9F%92%B2%F0%9F%97%9D%EF%B8%8F-%E2%9C%8520-positive-trust-ratings-always-buying%E2%9C%85/

https://gyazo.com/f56efadead891d702df1e08e55576b95

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198049149130

200 + 166 + 84 + 75 + 33 + 30 bought

$1.73 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/72542-sprekt-is-buying-keys172-tods085-and-backpacks-with/

https://gyazo.com/0fc7e3335c29ad8db4e82a795a42f12c

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198267189538

276 + 100 bought

$1.72 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80788-%F0%9F%92%B0-buying-keys-for-17-each-fullpartial-backpacks-via-paypal-any-sized-backpacks-any-amount-of-keys-top-15-backpack-70-trust/

https://gyazo.com/f0eb5d15822d7128f71d9dc957c6ac03

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198105071091

110 + 30 bought

$1.7 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/38397-%F0%9F%94%A5frost-is-buying-inventories-keys-for-160-paypal-usd-160-cryptp-800-trust-ratings%E2%9C%85-no-rep-needed/

https://gyazo.com/25034c91ff78ecfd7e220464faa61fed

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198061836787

100 + 100 bought

$1.6 / 45.28 = $0.035

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81254-buying-keys-171-tods-080-with-3k-paypalwisebank/

https://gyazo.com/5cd09a11e1127fb97dbce970688da4cd

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198154604316

324 + 348 bought

$1.71 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81320-buying-keys-190-each-via-zelle-bank-to-bank-transfer/

https://gyazo.com/db43ec00431ac3d631306f39010c5246

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198107800277

600 + 145 bought

$1.9 / 45.28 = $0.042

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79955-buying-keys-171-usd-each-for-paypal-us-based/

https://gyazo.com/32fdee10574d45d82931f0e4d634ee33

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198252696376

42 + 60 + 750 bought

$1.71 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80763-looking-to-bulk-buy-keys-at-165-usd-or-225-aud-paypal-sell-keys/

https://gyazo.com/41c479a47df7bd56160eb2cf81acd127

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198180923509

535 + 186 bought

$1.65 / 45.28 = $0.036

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81299-selling-keys-17-usd-each-buyer-pays-fees/

https://gyazo.com/ba858c6a82c3a89737fd3706911f8a92

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561199017523403

467 + 250 + 348 bought

$1.7 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80179-buying-keys-171-each-w-paypal/

https://gyazo.com/a7ccfd805ee8ef4a1adf7985de798882

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198046508051

1000+ bought

$1.71 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81312-looking-to-buy-your-tf2-keys-for-171-usd-each-through-paypal-venmo-or-zelle-140-trust-and-top-35-backpack-looking-for-up-to-2000-keys-and-200-keys-minimum/

https://gyazo.com/6a9d86926ae8709c4e6dc91a838ef141

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198177872379

120 bought, 1000 sold?

$1.71 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81310-wtb-keys-~-167eur-164-eu-based-paypalrevolut/

https://gyazo.com/c98a32860a5694d4bbb82fc655c8db18

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198271959619

32 sold

$1.67 / 45.28 = $0.037

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81306-buying-keys-for-16-usd-513-of-them/

https://gyazo.com/628db36a2a50da79251ddcf8e4a1282c

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198067741299

27 bought at $44.55 / 27 = $1.65 per key

$1.65 / 45.28 = $0.036

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80966-buying-keys-174-usd-via-paypal/

https://gyazo.com/da5c882d6248f49bae6daf3ff8740524

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198086011812

1150 bought

$1.74 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81291-buying-backpacks-and-keys-173-usd-paypalvenmozelle/

https://gyazo.com/17a05a8bb3481495cc1596d79ebb0536

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198335271745

Some bought

$1.73 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80927-selling-0-keys-176-via-paypal/

https://gyazo.com/b9d2599705c4988d6ec7f6d5cb4eb19f

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198447987357

500 + 20 sold

$1.76 / 45.28 = $0.039

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/81288-wts-keys-paypalrevolut-eu-based-170eur168-per-key/

https://gyazo.com/02af717a4c7a6abe599b31f53f687d1e

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198271959619

32 sold

$1.7 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76750-buying-keys-at-169-usd-paypal-bulk-sellers-welcome/

https://gyazo.com/c3f219cbe1378acb637ede05752ce236

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198052116405

150 bought

$1.69 / 45.28 = $0.037

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79965-%F0%9F%92%B2%F0%9D%90%81%F0%9D%90%AE%F0%9D%90%B2%F0%9D%90%A2%F0%9D%90%A7%F0%9D%90%A0-%F0%9D%90%8A%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%B2%F0%9D%90%AC-168-%F0%9D%90%94%F0%9D%90%92%F0%9D%90%83-%F0%9D%90%8F%F0%9D%90%9A%F0%9D%90%B2%F0%9D%90%8F%F0%9D%90%9A%F0%9D%90%A5%F0%9F%92%B2-154%E2%98%91%EF%B8%8F-%F0%9D%90%AD%F0%9D%90%AB%F0%9D%90%AE%F0%9D%90%AC%F0%9D%90%AD-9-%F0%9D%90%B2%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%9A%F0%9D%90%AB%F0%9D%90%AC-%F0%9D%90%A8%F0%9D%90%9F-%F0%9D%90%AC%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%AB%F0%9D%90%AF%F0%9D%90%A2%F0%9D%90%9C%F0%9D%90%9E-%F0%9D%90%A8%F0%9D%90%A7-%F0%9D%90%AC%F0%9D%90%AD%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%9A%F0%9D%90%A6%E2%9C%85/

https://gyazo.com/bf797eb0288056aa3afd5eb01e8bb320

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198093438754

23 + 17 + 23 + 37 + 23 + 30 + 30 bought

$1.68 / 45.28 = $0.037

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/80960-selling-0-keys-at-174usd-paypal/

https://gyazo.com/99f0fd891dcb938dff0cca65ced01a30

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561199183171982

600 sold

$1.74 / 45.28 = $0.038

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

Higher Marketplace ref sales at $0.05 and $0.06 support a raise

https://mannco.store/item/440-refined-metal

Higher Mannco.store ref sales at $0.04 also support a raise

Vast majority of sales at $0.038, a significant amount at $0.037 too. Sales at $0.035, $0.036, $0.039, $0.042 also, but those seem to be one-off occurrences.

Taking $0.037 - $0.038 per refined.