Suggestion: Haunted Ghosts Crone's Dome at 230 keys

Crones + Green Black Hole Conjurer's Cowl (170) for Harvest Moon Conjurer's Cowl (424), seems to be better used on either of the Cowls (this sale also supports a drop)

Rounding only sale to 230 flat.

Are we to value every hat based on one quick sell, particularly the one I bought? Call it bias if you will but I have some reason behind my price on the hat (price listed is for item overpay not pure).

This price suggestion fails to take a few things into account, firstly the harvest moon cowl sold here

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198858235255#!/compare/1660694400/1660780800

This hat currently has a buy order at 550 keys, a clear indication that the price is out of date already, furthermore the hat was also sold for a beak and 2 harvest moon hats. One of which is worth more than your suggestion would assume the cowl is worth and makes the sell orders for the hat seem more reasonable.

Buy order:

https://i.imgur.com/2yEgS4e.png

The trade:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198858235255#!/compare/1660089600/1660176000

grim hatte listings with a 450 key buy order from a bot no less

https://i.imgur.com/Sq8Zhip.png

bonnet with a 300 key buy order from a committed human buyer, orders at 178 for one human one bot

https://i.imgur.com/h8p2hy1.png

If we go off of buy orders (immediate value of the hat in pure) someone paid GH 450-475 + GB 178-300 + 225 beak = harvest moon cowl 850-1000 keys

which bumps the value of the cowl from the 424 you assumed it would be worth to a minimum of 850 keys, so that leaves us with empty values.

HG Crone's (230?) + GBH Cowl (170?) + (850-1000) HM bonnet doesn't add up. The owner of this hat cashed out on a quick sell for pure, it falls within the current price suggestion for the hat so it should remain as is, low end price represents quick sells accurately.

I guess I was wrong in saying that the sale supports a drop, and in hindsight I would remove the outdated values from the suggestion entirely since as you've demonstrated, the HM Cowl is definitely outdated.

But regardless, the reason the sale is being excluded here is because the Crones is more than likely less than 50% of the trade for the HM Cowl (if we are to assume the Cowl is at least 850-1000). Meaning the sale is bulk and shouldn't be used here.

Also, if anything, that trade in particular seems to suggest that the GBH Cowl is worth way more than 170.

For instance, when the GBH Cowl sold more than 3 months ago, buy orders for it were up to 316 https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Green%20Black%20Hole%20Conjurer%27s%20Cowl&at=2022-06-11T00:36:54.000Z

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198324276106#!/compare/1654819200/1654905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1654819200/1654905600

It may very well be a quicksell as you've said, but as it stands 227 is only usable sale here. This can be amended when more sales occur and they indicate 227 is an outlier.