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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198812238263#!/compare/1661558400/1661644800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1661558400/1661644800
sold for 87 pure and Purple Energy Modest Pile of Hat (93) and Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Knife (23)
= 203
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1661212800/1661299200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182205245#!/compare/1661299200/1661731200
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064596596#!/compare/1658707200/1658966400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1658620800/1658707200
sold for Burning Flames Tundra Top (131) and 90 keys worth of cheaper items
= 221
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182213262#!/compare/1661990400/1662163200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199190065455#!/compare/1661990400/1662076800
sold for 170 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199190065455#!/compare/1661904000/1661990400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322957656#!/compare/1661904000/1661990400
sold for 165 pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322957656#!/compare/1661817600/1661904000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137564765#!/compare/1661817600/1661904000
Scorching Flames Tundra Top + Death at Dusk Vive La France for Cloudy Moon Whoopee Cap
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137564765#!/compare/1661472000/1661558400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069694473#!/compare/1661472000/1661558400
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1660608000/1660694400
bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132804259#!/compare/1663286400/1663632000
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198379524222#!/compare/1661126400/1662508800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083528997#!/compare/1660262400/1662508800
bulk
mp sales:
350/1.95=203
sales: 165,170, 203,203,221
current sellers: 175,178,240 (unsold 2 mo)
buyers 155
excluding 221 as outlier
rounding and taking 165-200
my bot just sold a Scorching Flames Tundra Top for 190keys
https://imgur.com/Sh6twm0
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Scorching%20Flames%20Tundra%20Top&at=2022-11-02T13:17:38.099Z
Neither the Modest nor Knife went to the seller in the first sale. They were first sold for Keys that were used to buy this.
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Scorching+Flames+Tundra+Top&at=2022-08-27T18%3A41%3A00.000Z - It was listed for 190 Keys
The 90 Keys of smaller items in the third sale don't all appear to go to the seller. You'll need screenshot confirmation of that trade to confirm what was involved, and you'll also need to find sales for the outdated and unpriced items in that sale.
Your untraceable sale was 210 Keys, but that should be excluded as a high outlier.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198379524222#!/compare/1663113600/1663459200
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Scorching+Flames+Tundra+Top&at=2022-09-17T14%3A41%3A00.000Z - That happened with a seller at 195
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064596596#!/compare/1658966400/1673740800 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101711836#!/compare/1667260800/1667347200 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276681691#!/compare/1668729600/1668816000 - Scorching Eyewear + Emerald Mannrobics + ~20
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131929175#!/compare/1662854400/1663027200 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1665100800/1665187200 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182213262#!/compare/1663027200/1663113600 - ?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201937808#!/compare/1670716800/1670803200 - Probably sold for 195 Keys
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Scorching+Flames+Tundra+Top&at=2022-12-12T02%3A44%3A00.000Z - The buyout was 195 and we see 195
https://mannco.store/item/440-scorching-flames-unusual-tundra-top - $229 (low), $350 (193 Keys), and $250 (low)
https://backpack.tf/item/11471758657 - History for the $250 sale
The Eyewear sale will be 200 Keys at most
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Scorching+Flames+Tundra+Top&at=2022-11-18T23%3A22%3A00.000Z
165 and 170 should be excluded as low outliers because the seller in each sale sold this in under a day. Additionally, with the majority of the sales being well above those values, that further supports excluding both.
Without concrete evidence of the sales for when this was listed for 175 and 178 Keys, a range of 190 - 200 would work here.