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1.Sold oct 22 2022 for 300$ on marketplace.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30984;5;u201
key price = 1.97 $
300/1.97= 152.28 keys
rounding to nearest 5, 150 keys
2. https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010392559#!/compare/1666137600/1666656000
sold for 116 pure + Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Skullcracker Unusualifier + Amethyst Winds Taunt: The Victory Lap
116 + 8 + (unpriced, using buyers @ 20.69) = 144.69
rounding to nearest 5, 145
You need to do out a proper valuation of the unpriced item.
The Victory Lap doesn't have usable sales as far as I can tell, so can't give it a better mini than buyers. The Sky High sale had a B/O of 150 anyways:
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Sky%20High%20Fly%20Guy&at=2022-10-20T04:59:47.000Z
So the sale would end up somewhere around 145-150. The suggested range is fine.