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Blizzardy Storm Crack Pot
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/7515703482
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1666051200/1666224000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199218231854#!/compare/1665705600/1666742400
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Blizzardy+Storm+Crack+Pot&at=2022-10-19T11%3A45%3A00.000Z
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Blizzardy%20Storm%20Crack%20Pot
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Likely Dumped to Buy order of 12 Keys 4.88 Ref
//
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31024;5;u30
Sale 2:
21.99 / 1.95 = 11.28
11 Key
Sale 3:
21.99 / 1.94 = 11.34
11 Keys
Sale 4:
21.99 / 1.95 = 11.28
11 Keys
Sale 5:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average price of Keys surrounding sale date:
1.99 + 1.99 +1.97 + 1.97 + 1.99 +1.99 / 6 = 1.98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24.99 / 1.98 = 12.62
13 Keys
//
Gladiator
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Blizzardy%20Storm%20Crack%20Pot
Sold:
Past 30 days
1 @ 12 keys 20 ref
Brought
Past 30 days
3 @ 12 keys 4.88 ref
1 @ 12 keys 5 ref
//
Sale Summary:
12
11
11
11
13
12 x 5
- Excluding Sale at 13 because a recent sell order @ 12 Keys 12.77 ref and dumping at ~12 key in sale 1
https://imgur.com/za0V5tN
Conclusion
11 - 12
Gladiator sales from previous months seem to also be ~11-12 keys:
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Blizzardy%20Storm%20Crack%20Pot&at=2022-10-07T04:33:17.274Z - 12 (x1)
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Blizzardy%20Storm%20Crack%20Pot&at=2022-09-07T04:33:17.274Z - 11 (x1), 12 (x3)
Looks like there may be another sale at ~12 from Quicksell.store here?
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Blizzardy+Storm+Crack+Pot&at=2022-10-11T15%3A10%3A00.000Z
I guess your justification for excluding 13 seems reasonable enough, so I think the range holds up 👍