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Pumpkin Party Bazaar Bauble
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/9325597863
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1664496000/1664668800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215813163#!/compare/1664409600/1665446400
12 Keys (B/O was 12 keys; 12 keys in compare)
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215813163#!/compare/1666742400/1666828800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343606728#!/compare/1666828800/1666915200
Bulk
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198343606728#!/compare/1666915200/1667001600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199081821087#!/compare/1666051200/1667001600
9 Keys + Sweet
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199081821087#!/compare/1667001600/1667433600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886830410#!/compare/1647475200/1667347200
15 Keys
//
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/9313594973
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31112;5;u163
Sale 5:
19.99 / 1.98 = 10.09
10 Keys
//
Sale Summary:
12 Keys
9 Keys
15 Keys
10 Keys
Conclusion
9 - 15 Keys
I feel like 15 keys may end being a bit high here given the marketplace listing at ~10 keys was unsold for at least a month https://gyazo.com/3cc1749ef75fdb3eb9eb9a3b4685d924, and was also listed when the 15 sale happened.
The seller who sold at 15 was the same user who bought from marketplace shortly afterwards, not sure how to read into that.