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!mp sale
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/200;15;u702;w3;pk292;kt-2;festive
79.99/1.98 = 40.39
Rounding down to a neat 40k
History link for the mp sale:
https://backpack.tf/item/11717713014
Other sales: Strange Horsemann's Hack Shoestring Santa (mini at 49) + ~12 keys in sweets --- ~61 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1666656000/1666742400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297474923#!/compare/1666742400/1666828800
Shoestring Santa seems to have resold for 49 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1666742400/1666828800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991477148#!/compare/1666656000/1666828800
The Scattergun buyer then resold it for 34 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297474923#!/compare/1668297600/1668384000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1668211200/1668297600
Since 61 resold for 34, it's better to ignore both sales. This should be fine.