https://backpack.tf/item/3897258750

First sale was either before it was unusualified or withdrawn from mptf without being sold since nothing appears https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30614;5;u3102

Looks like 2 keys and a crapload of cases:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137040977#!/compare/1668384000/1668556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156868223#!/compare/1668297600/1668470400

I count 108 cases in the first compare, which seem to be all priced at 0.05-0.11 ref (mean of 0.08)

So 108*0.08=108=8.64 ref

Which makes this sale around 2 keys 8.64 ref

3 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156868223#!/compare/1668470400/1668556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096802308#!/compare/1668470400/1668556800

https://backpack.tf/item/5375036008

Wasn’t unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098725833#!/compare/1664841600/1665446400

https://backpack.tf/item/11500156911

Not unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074080874#!/compare/1664064000/1664496000

Not unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199305746616#!/compare/1666137600/1666656000

https://backpack.tf/item/11551703864

Not unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177440925#!/compare/1665532800/1665619200

Untrace but most likely not unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1665532800/1665532800/nearest

Not unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110778355#!/compare/1666656000/1666742400

The sales we have are ~2 keys and 3 keys. With buyers at 2.51 keys, 2 looks low so going with 3 flat for now