https://backpack.tf/item/2053412784

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1657497600/1657584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199109683424#!/compare/1657497600/1657584000

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Poisoned%20Shadows%20Whirly%20Warrior&at=2022-07-12T18:01:04.000Z\

https://imgur.com/a/DlaYtaL (Credits Richie)

2301 keys + Arcana Letch's LED (760) + Bonzo The All-Gnawing Chieftain's Challenge (2118, mini below) = 5179 keys

/

Bonzo Chieftain mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1658448000/1658534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027610614#!/compare/1657497600/1659052800

https://imgur.com/a/qnzvJLe - Haunted Ghosts Cowl was used as security

Clean Scorching Flames Sergeant's Drill Hat + 18014.74 NOK (1823.68 USD https://gyazo.com/46557389717182b5df3362a5da139aac) + 100 USD + 400 USD + 400 USD + 400 USD

=

Drill + $3123.68

=

261 + 1905 = 2166 keys

//

Key mini from here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/62e31c983142d619e60b8e7f

$1.60 - 1.68, ~$1.64

$ 3123.68 / $ 1.64 = ~1905 keys

Scorching Drill mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1659052800/1659225600

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Scorching%20Flames%20Sergeant%27s%20Drill%20Hat&at=2022-07-29T17:39:25.000Z

249 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040073503#!/compare/1662076800/1662508800

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Scorching%20Flames%20Sergeant%27s%20Drill%20Hat&at=2022-09-02T17:58:36.000Z

272 keys

249 - 272, ~261 keys

//

Huge thanks to Shuffle Spy:

The person who paid 2166 for the Chieftain dumped it in a backpack sale a month later.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1661126400/1661299200

It then sold again for a lot of items (~640 Keys) + Tavish (167.5) + Lucky (300) + Revolver (78) + Bat Hat (98.5) + Beak (450) + Peak (362.5) + 16 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1663027200/1663200000

640 + 450 + 362.5 + 300 + 167.5 + 98.5 + 78 + 16 = 2112.5 Keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30743;5;u122 - The Peak sold for $750 (~375 Keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039846030#!/compare/1667865600/1667952000 - The Peak also sold for a DBD Soldered + Planets Specs

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051930593#!/compare/1666742400/1666828800 - The Sensei sold for 350 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039846030#!/compare/1668297600/1668384000 - The Sensei also sold for a Cloudy Rag + 187 Keys

https://gyazo.com/c6958934b74769ad110f818b0c4cb955 - Confirmation of the Heavy Duty Rag sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132113819#!/compare/1666828800/1666915200 - The Rag sold for a Haunted Forever Blast + 2 Taunts

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259851349#!/compare/1666742400/1666915200 - A Moth Field Practice was also added to the Blast

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453055175#!/compare/1667779200/1667865600 - The Blast sold for 150 Keys

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Orbiting+Planets+Spook+Specs&at=2022-11-16T02%3A04%3A00.000Z - The Planets Specs are <23 Keys

350 - 375 will work for the Peak, since the Rag sale will fit in that range.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6333784bb088fa7a560f50b6 - The Beak is ~450 Keys; none of the other sales are traceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1662336000/1662508800 - 246 of the 410 Keys are traceable, so I imagine that was 410

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198889987634#!/compare/1654819200/1655251200 - The Lucky shot sold for a Scorching Specs + stuff

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Morning+Glory+Lucky+Shot&at=2022-06-15T01%3A35%3A00.000Z - That'll be capped at 300

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308121805#!/compare/1655510400/1655596800 - The Specs sold for 200 Keys + ~80 Keys of Unusuals

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198889987634#!/compare/1655251200/1655596800 - The Vivid Beanies in the Specs sale were dumped for 40

The Guttekutenharen in the Specs sale was in-date at 42 Keys when that sale occurred.

https://mannco.store/item/440-distant-dream-unusual-bat-hat - The Bat Hat sold for $200 (118 Keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100477765#!/compare/1669248000/1669507200 - It also sold for items that'll cap at 79 Keys

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Distant+Dream+Bat+Hat&at=2022-11-24T19%3A59%3A00.000Z - The 79 Key buyout

79 - 118 averages to 98.5 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1666137600/1666742400 - The Tavish sold for a Beams Razor + 55 Keys

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Death+at+Dusk+Tavish+DeGroot+Experience&at=2022-10-20T20%3A15%3A00.000Z - That's likely capped at 160

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Sunbeams+Razor+Cut&at=2022-10-20T23%3A26%3A00.000Z - The Razor had buy orders at 97 Keys

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Sunbeams+Razor+Cut&at=2022-10-26T21%3A27%3A00.000Z - They got up to 100 Keys a few days later

https://gyazo.com/fc99d94c13537fd9d6b38907f5ada544 - It then added 80 Keys + ~5 Keys of Items for a Cloudy Moon Carouser's Capotain

https://gyazo.com/9522b614ff274f5873766266c62920e1 - It then sold for a bunch of items seen in the compare below that get capped at 175

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054712892#!/compare/1667347200/1667692800

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Death+at+Dusk+Tavish+DeGroot+Experience&at=2022-11-05T20%3A14%3A00.000Z

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155371354#!/compare/1656720000/1658102400 - A different Tavish quicksold for 86 Keys

The Capotain sale would be better used for that, but 160 - 175 works for the Tavish

The 640 estimate was with everything except the listed larger items and the Keys. I gave a ballpark estimate of the values for the severely outdated or unpriced Unusuals from the sellers and buyers for the sake of showing that the sale would be a decent amount less than 2166.

The non-Unusuals (including the Headtaker) total around 487 Keys. With the Headsplitter (~13), that's 500.

The Broom (~20), Throttlehead (~30), Burstchester (~40), Front (~18), Results (~15), Tricorne (~17), and Reel (~20) gave the 640, but those are more likely to have differing values than the Headsplitter estimate.

Purple Energy Throttle Head (26):

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Purple%20Energy%20Throttlehead&at=2022-10-12T19:13:46.825Z - ~18, 28 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Purple%20Energy%20Throttlehead&at=2022-11-12T19:13:46.825Z - ~21 keys (x2)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31282;5;u10 - $89.99/1.95 = ~46 keys (high), $64.99/1.97 = ~33 keys

https://mannco.store/item/440-purple-energy-unusual-throttlehead - $39.99/1.83 = ~22 keys, $40/1.86 = ~22 keys, $26.54/1.84 = ~14 keys

Excluding 14 and 46 gives us a range of 18 - 33, ~26 keys.

For the Throttlehead, 18 is too low given its buy order price (18 was also a buy order sale).

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1669075200/1669420800 - Sold for 20 Keys

The difference there won't be substantial.

For the Reel Fly, it sold once for 25 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1666137600/1666742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079296534#!/compare/1664064000/1668384000 - The Machina sold for the Keys first

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Blizzardy%20Storm%20Reel%20Fly%20Hat&at=2022-10-22T03:25:32.624Z

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/630f76029eb77c1869093212 - The Results Are In was around 15 - 18 Keys at the time of the sale

https://mannco.store/item/440-green-confetti-unusual-front-runner - The Front Runner sold for $39.95 (23 Keys) around 3 weeks prior to the sale

The Tricorne has no other sales, though buyers were at 14 Keys at the time of the sale

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Circling+Peace+Sign+Tippler%27s+Tricorne&at=2022-09-15T21%3A22%3A00.000Z

That'd make the smaller items in the Chieftain's sale 500 + 26 + 16 + 35 + 25 + 16.5 + 13 + 14 = 645.5 Keys which makes the Chieftain's sale 2118 Keys.

2118 + 2301 + 760 = 5,179 Keys, which can be rounded to 5200 Keys.

/

5200 will work here.