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~452 keys
Collector's Escapist
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  • 220 keys
    Collector's Escapist
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https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Collector%27s+Escapist&at=2022-12-31T03%3A11%3A00.000Z


The user took down all of his buy orders above bp price for items that only I own that had been up for months as soon as I posted the Photo Badge suggestion, I guess he changed his mind about those ones.


Same rationale as before:

Buy order has been active since December, and it only went down when the buyer ran out of keys and it went right back up again when he had keys again. If it goes down again check his key stock, going on history it goes right back up when he has keys. I think that strengthens the case because he's willing at any time to spend basically all his keys on the item.


A buyer at well above bp (130) supports raise

    it is best to wait for actual sales before updating any items really. moreover, the buyer was only up at 220 keys for less than a day at the time of this suggestion and disappeared. they now have a buy-order for 150 keys.

    it would be best to leave this outdated until we have some actual sales first but seeing as there is unlikely any intention of this ever selling it doesn't really make sense to raise this based on a single buyer in which there is no chance of a sale ever happening to them


      Many of the suggestions I have posted have current buyers at the same price or above it. There are also multiple owners of this and many other items. It would be helpful for you to comment on each of those individual situations in each of my price suggestions; this seems like a generalization for this item and also inaccurate.


      You can clearly see in the time machine that the buyer was active for over a month, not less than a day. Also, The rationale of leaving it unpriced based on a single buyer doesn't make sense when the prices of Collector's hats often change dramatically based on only one sale.

        i haven't looked at your other suggestions yet but if they go off the same basis then my answer for them would be similar. it's goes with the same reasoning why we do not raise items based off of offers. if there is no intention to sell to that 'offer' or 'buyer' then it clearly doesn't reflect how the item is being traded so the raise wouldn't be justified. raising an item on a single sale even with a drastic change is much more reasonable than off of an unsuccessful buyer the main difference being there was an actual sale involved and thus it represents how the item was traded (assuming there is no evidence of how it could be deemed an inaccurate representation of the existing market). whereas on the single buyer situation, if someone has a buy listing up for X amount and no owner is willing to sell to them then that is not an accurate price for that item.


        https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/36705-rules-for-non-unusual-suggestions/?do=findComment&comment=550334 - foamy explains this a bit better in point 4 of his post there


        in regards to this suggestion though i probably didn't explain the time machine comment i made that well hence the confusion. i meant at the time this suggestion was posted yes there was a buy order of 220 keys as indicated here:

        https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Collector%27s%20Escapist&at=2023-02-02T18:23:27.000Z

        but that soon disappeared within a day of this suggestion and it was only up for the day. before then it was only up on jan 8 according to the time machine:

        https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Collector%27s+Escapist&at=2023-01-08T05%3A25%3A00.000Z

        it then popped up again for a day on feb 25:

        https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Collector%27s+Escapist&at=2023-02-26T04%3A01%3A00.000Z

        and disappeared and was relisted on mar 3 for 150 keys:

        https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Collector%27s+Escapist&at=2023-03-03T02%3A41%3A00.000Z

          Just because there is no intention at the exact iota of a moment doesn't mean there never will be. This is a unique market with a unique circumstance. One can infer from similar sales of other items that it is a more accurate price than the vastly outdated one so regardless of what that forum post says, Collector's cosmetics are a unique circumstance compared to most "non-Unusual" items and thus should be treated differently in any event. I will describe why.


          1. Analogizing based on the amount that exist is a surface-level understanding of the situation

          -There are more than two relevant scenarios to determining the most accurate price for an item. In this situation, this price is clearly more accurate because of intention to buy at multiple intervals with pure keys.

          -the supporting analogy to a prized artwork is a poor one and in fact supports my proposition. Rare pieces of artworks in museums and private collections are regularly appraised even without having sold for years decades or even centuries. See generally: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mona_Lisa , https://theartwolf.com/art-market/most-valuable-paintings/ . While these valuations are not as accurate as a sale WOULD BE, they are MORE ACCURATE and therefore worthy of consideration; this situation is no different than that.


          2. Foamy misunderstands the purpose of a buy order in order to come to his conclusion.

          -Buy orders are not as narrowly constricted as Foamy proposes. By this logic, the buy order here is invalid and should be taken down. Buy orders can by backpack rules be used for various other purposes and are not limited to common items. I have in fact used buy orders to solicit users who have had me blocked to successfully purchase their items after receiving public notice of my offer.


          Foamy proposes that the situation doesn't permit the proposed price to be seen as "better than current" without supporting that conclusion, as I have stated above. By the logic of your post here, this suggestion should actually be accepted, especially given the "rare painting" analogy.


          3. This situation is not analogous to why items are not raised based off of offers because of the limited number of items available; it is a unique circumstance with no connective tissue to that situation.


          4. Policy reasons support the suggestion being passed.

          -https://backpack.tf/about delineates the site's mission statement as to "supply and decide accurate pricing information in a clear and democratic voting process". As this price is more accurate, this suggestion should be passed. Also, it is more "clear" to accept this suggestion in connecting with Foamy's "rare painting" analogy that is publicly available in this situation; not only does it have a clear and strong connection to real-world analogous economics, but it has a clear and strong connection to material put forward by price mods in the past like you have linked to.

          -that page also states: "In other words, don't expect perfect statistics, as this is unfortunately impossible to guarantee." Site administration itself has admitted that perfection is impossible; in this situation, the closest thing to perfection would be to update the item using its most accurate price.


          Based on all of this, it is clear that not only the site's mission statement but also the non-unusual rules mandate the passing of this suggestion and my other similar ones.

            'Collector's cosmetics are a unique circumstance compared to most "non-Unusual" items and thus should be treated differently in any event.'


            yes this is true, collectors items should not be compares to the majority of common non-unusuals but rather treated more similarly to unusuals. it is the same reason why we do not raise unusuals based solely on buyers as buyers come and go. this is evident and perfectly demonstrated in this suggestion. for the whole 2 month duration this suggestion has been up, there has only been a visible buyer at 220 keys for 2-3 of those days. the majority of the time there was no buy order at all available.


            'Rare pieces of artworks in museums and private collections are regularly appraised even without having sold for years decades or even centuries. See generally: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mona_Lisa , https://theartwolf.com/art-market/most-valuable-paintings/ . While these valuations are not as accurate as a sale WOULD BE, they are MORE ACCURATE and therefore worthy of consideration; this situation is no different than that.'


            not that I fully agree with the analogy of comparing these to artwork but in the case you've mentioned here. i'd argue it does not support your proposition because paintings like the Mona Lisa do not have any specific value. multiple people can appraise it sure but no single value is given to it because it is impossible to determine its true value without there ever being any sales. it is all guess work and estimation.

            the reason why i do not agree with the analogy is because it is inaccurate to compare virtual tf2 items to paintings like the Mona Lisa in this example because they actually do have reasoning behind the valuation they are given. it is well known that the Mona Lisa is one of the most expensive paintings in existence (if not the most) despite never being sold (at least in hundreds of years). paintings are insured based on their supposed value and it holds the guiness world record for the highest ever insurance value on a painting. you're not going to be seeing a tf2 item such as this being given an insured value any time soon

            all sources you'd be able to find indicate that there is no specific value to it specifically quoting: 'it is believed to be worth $850 million', 'other paintings by the artist were bought for...', 'the french government believes it to be worth 3 billion euros yearly'.

            'It appears therefore fair to say that the Mona Lisa is an inestimable treasure'

            'The Mona Lisa, the most expensive art piece in existence, is therefore invaluable and will not be sold any time soon. In a similar manner, it is not possible to precisely estimate the value of many other masterpieces.'


            'Foamy misunderstands the purpose of a buy order in order to come to his conclusion.'


            I'll let foamy speak for himself as I do not want to put any words in his mouth but I believe you're misunderstanding what he is saying in relation to buy-orders. the buy-order itself is not invalid as long as that buyer is willing to pay the listed amount for the item. the problem here is that the suggested price is not better than the current price. the current price was based off a sale that actually occurred. the suggested price here you are basing entirely on a single buyer who we have seen is not constantly willing to pay a specific amount which is evident when viewing buy-orders as a whole as they are always changing.


            https://backpack.tf/suggestion/57de6ec9c4404560424e2471 - as pointed out by Mindacos:


            'Extremely rare items like these should be treated like Unusuals when it comes to buy orders. Both of these are stuck with collectors as others have stated, and won't ever resell, making any sort of raise extremely arbitrary.


            This would be similar to someone making a buy order of 500 Keys for a Bubbling Valhalla Helm. Only one exists and will ever exist, and it's stuck with a collector who won't EVER resell it. It doesn't mean that because of that buy order it should be worth that much.


            That said, there's no point on raising an item that very clearly won't resell. Anyone can put up a buy order for one of these without ever needing to actually buy one, and it would create an endless span of pointless suggestions. Unless there's SALES, suggestions like these are invalid, and will not be accepted. This will apply to every single collectable rarity that's priced or not, for example: http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Team%20Fortress%202%20-%20Upgrade%20to%20Premium/Tradable/Non-Craftable/0'


            'In other words, don't expect perfect statistics, as this is unfortunately impossible to guarantee.'


            yes site administration has admitted perfection is impossible which is exactly why we only update items based upon valid sales that have occurred. it is impossible to determine an items value if it will never sell which is why in these situations we either leave an item outdated based upon the old data which was valid at the time or leave an item unpriced as there is no sales data available. in this case this is not an accurate price as demonstrated already. this 'update' would not be an updated value of this item, it would still reflect the items value inaccurately and give a false representation of its value. especially given a buy-order can disappear without purchasing the item at all at any given time.


            just like the Mona Lisa situation you brought up, sure the wiki says it is worth 1 billion today but i think you're ignoring the fact that that value is literally based off an insurance valuation of $100 million in the 1960s adjusted for inflation. so if anything they are still estimating it off the original price valuation which in this case would be the current price set 8 years ago.


            regardless, as mentioned in my previous 2 comments, there is no buyer at 220 keys anymore as they have since reduced their buy order to 150 keys so the suggested price will be invalid regardless.

              Your first line is exactly why this should not pass, nor should all the other proposed buy order raises; if there is ever a time where you sell this, it can be suggested, and until that, it will have to remain outdated, just like any other item of this tier. This is actually very basic following of our rules so I do not understand the opposition to Blaze's comment here. Below, I will address the points you made, and at the end of the comment, the main reason this type of suggestion is not acceptable is highlighted.


              1)

              - This statement is straight up false. Nothing makes 220 an accurate price right now. Who is to say it won't sell for 1000 instead? that's a very large margin of error, far exceeding the accepted margin of error of the site. One might argue that it is unrealistic for this to sell for that amount, but the fact that we don't know is the exact reason why it best to wait for sales, in particular on rare items like this.

              - You completely misinterpret the point Im trying to make with the artwork example - it is meant to outline why buy orders make no sense in a scenario where there is only one copy of the item available anyway, and why determining a price based on a buy order that holds no value makes no sense within our pricing system. I understand that pixel hats are not works of art, and you cannot have an art consultant look at your collectors items to determine their condition and whatnot to put a price on it. Prices on works of art that do not sell have insurance-related purposes, and there is no such thing in the virtual hat trading world. I am well aware of the limitations of my analogy, but for the purpose of the point I wanted to make it suffices.


              2)

              I am not misunderstanding anything about the purpose of buy orders for pricing purposes. The buy order is not invalid, it just holds no value for price suggestions. The fact that you have so many users blocked that require you to resort to this is a clear exception to the common purpose of buy orders, and the fact that such an exceptional case uses them differently does not mean that I do not know the purpose of buy orders.


              Refer to the first point in 1) for support of that conclusion


              3)

              It is weird that you would attempt to debunk standing explanations on why we do not do certain things if you then also make the argument that this is an entirely different case. There is some truth in it, in the sense that almost all of these are case-by-case (BECAUSE they are such rare items), and I tried to generalize the different cases available by placing them into categories that most of them fit into, to provide a clear understanding of our rationale. Bear in mind that all of these were written for rare and/or glitched versions of otherwise regularly existing items. For unusuals, and anything in the unusual value tier list, this is not even considered, as no items in these price categories are raised by buy orders (which I'll get back to after addressing the remainder of your points)


              4)

              - The fundamental mistake you make here is that you have already decided for yourself that this price is more accurate. That's a fallacy that seems to be the core of your whole rationale here (especially looking at your conclusion), which already collapses the foundation of your critique.

              - Of course we cannot guarantee perfect statistics, but that does not mean we can just make suggestions along the lines of "I think it should be worth this much". Evidently, there's a little more thought put into this one, but that does not mean that this is not wildly inaccurate. For this, it is also important to understand the difference between an 8-year-old value that is probably no longer accurate, and a freshly set price that is very likely not even remotely accurate either. One could argue that the 8 year old price holds no value anymore as a lot has happened since, but that would advocate wiping the price rather than slapping an arbitrary label on it now, based on nothing but a buyer that will evidently never get it through said buy order (or at least not now, which is what the suggestion would imply).


              Main reason)

              Note that I primarily went by what you said in the above, there is a far more obvious reason not to accept something like this:

              If this would pass, I think everyone that owns a 1/1 would ensure that buy orders would be created for their hats, either by themselves or by others, as a means to increase their value. Hell, based on your train of thought, I can increase my hellfire conqueror sevenfold of what it was priced at last based on active buy orders (which for the same reason makes no sense), and that is even without any ill-intention. In a system such as this, it is important not to have clear loopholes that allow for very easy abuse; as stated it is very difficult to achieve perfection in this, but these buy order raises are a hard no based on that fact alone, regardless of the rebuttal to your explanation provided above; that is only there as a clarification for others, but primarily for you.


              P.S.

              In general, I think you get lost in lexical semantics too much. We try to define rules, goals, purposes, exceptions etc. as clear as possible so that the majority of people can understand it. I don't mind having loopholes pointed out because we can redefine rules and guidelines if they lead to too much confusion, but in this case, I think the issue is primarily that you argue towards what you have already determined to be the truth, rather than to use your arguments to find out the best course of action, and that the issue is not within our rules, goals, or analogies, but rather with your interpretation of them (as you seem to interpret them in the way that suits your case here without looking at the real point).

                I think that your response here represents "arguing towards what you have already determined to be the truth" for a number of reasons:


                1. You say that there is a conflict with the "clear purpose of buy orders" without defining that purpose, this is conclusory and circular logic.

                2. You say "nothing makes 220 an accurate price right now" without supporting that conclusion.

                3. "For unusuals, and anything in the unusual value tier list, this is not even considered, as no items in these price categories are raised by buy orders": This is also conclusory; I am trying to change your mind with a policy argument. This is equivalent to saying that "this is a rule because it is a rule". It is a circular argument.

                4. Your "more obvious reason" of not accepting these suggestions regarding abuse of buy order is the only point I find relatively convincing, but could clearly be prevented through administrative changes just as there are other rules preventing price manipulation.


                Regarding your first few points, I would argue that the logic is circular and only really reinforced by the fact that you are a price mod and I am not. Regarding the last point, you yourself admit that you can "redefine rules and guidelines"; considering the urgent need to update the prices of these items in this manner, I urge the price mods to amend the rules preventing buy order abuse in order to accommodate the passing of these suggestions (especially in cases like the Photo Badge where the buyer at 400 is currently active; I am just choosing to reply once again here to keep discussion centralized)

                  Excuse anything that might sound sarcastic as a result, but I honestly don't know if you really don't understand, simply didn't read, or choose to ignore what I said in making your statements here.


                  1) Im gonna cut edges because I have in fact given definitions multiple times already: the purpose of buy orders is to buy things (obviously). If buy orders are not going to buy things, they clearly do not represent accurate values. Go over the analogy again, and then read my explanation of the analogy in the comments. Since you seem to struggle with the definition of circular logic: an actual example of circular logic would be your "This price is accurate just 'cause and since you want accurate prices you must accept".


                  2) I quote literally the next sentence: "Who is to say it won't sell for 1000 instead? that's a very large margin of error, far exceeding the accepted margin of error of the site. One might argue that it is unrealistic for this to sell for that amount, but the fact that we don't know is the exact reason why it best to wait for sales, in particular on rare items like this.. You can disagree with the sentiment, but don't tell me I do not support my stances.


                  3) You've been around for ages, I assume you know the basic concept of the site: we price items with sales. Buy orders are not sales, thus we do not use them to price these items. Unusual (tier) suggestions have always required sales, this is nothing new, this is not a grey area, or a fuzzy rule that people struggle to understand, especially not someone with your intellect. There is a rationale behind wanting to have sales to price stuff, which Id happily explain but I assume you know. Something so fundamental should not really need extra explanation; its not a circular argument, its referencing the site fundamentals.


                  4) And what makes this an exception? We cannot verify you did not ask this guy to make the orders. I don't think you did, but there is no way we can justify ruling it okay in some cases and reject it in others, and there is no need to because as I already explained, buy orders are not accurate prices for items with so few in existence in the first place.


                  For the last point: your argument revolves around the urgency of these updates; why are they urgent?

                    They are urgent because the site's mission statement is to "supply and decide accurate pricing information", and these items have gone without an update for some time so it is in the site's interest to facilitate their updating whenever they can be updated. This is the fundamental purpose of the site and these suggestions would greatly help to facilitate that purpose.


                    Furthermore, you say that the proposed prices would "far exceed the accepted margin of error of the site". Can that margin be quantitatively defined? If not, since some margin of error is inescapable, it is within the site's best interests to take these pricing opportunities whenever they arise even with some margin of error.


                    There are many circumstances where it cannot be verified with 100% certainty that manipulation did not occur; in fact, I would argue that manipulation is POSSIBLE and not PLAUSIBLE in many cases of accepted suggestions. Here is an example https://backpack.tf/suggestion/588e9b1be33877348e7b8a71


                      First point: "whenever they can be updated" - but they can't, as they do not have sales. These suggestions do not help the fundamental purpose of the site in any way as a result.


                      Second point: there are official thresholds in place in cases where uncertainty matters (i.e. when it concerns sales that are far apart, where we've put a limit in place in case the high end sale is more than double the low end, to prevent extreme inaccuracies). In this case, it does not matter, as there is no way to define what the real error is, because there are no sales (and therefore the error in value is infinite, and by default exceeds any margin of error), hence these should not be updated until sales arise, which is why it is not in the site's best interest at all to update these.


                      Third point: that suggestion has a sale, we're discussing situations in which we do not have sales, and updates should not occur, because we are not pricing these items without sales.


                        Well, I can't say I agree with much of anything that has been said here, but I obviously have no recourse against the say of a price mod, so I will close these suggestions